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Article #205: Experts Still Working on North Korean Nuclear Claim

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The U.S. Defense Department says it is about it, for example, picking up on
still evaluating data from the explosion Internet traffic, voice messages, things
and small earth tremor in North Korea on like that. In may be that the National
Monday to determine whether it was in Security Agency will have some
fact an underground nuclear test, as the information also," he said.
North Korean government claims. Another analyst, former CNN reporter Mike
Nearly two full days after the explosion Chinoy of the Pacific Council on
in North Korea, U.S. officials, including International Policy, who has visited
Pentagon Spokesman Bryan Whitman, cannot North Korea 14 times, says although it is
say for sure whether it was a nuclear always difficult to know what the
explosion or not. country's leaders are thinking, he cannot
He said, "We're continuing to assess the imagine they would pretend to conduct a
event to determine the veracity of the nuclear test.
claim made by the North Korean government He said, "Without being privy to all the
that they conducted an underground scientific and intelligence information,
nuclear test." my own sense is that it would be unlikely
Whitman says it takes time to analyze the for the North Koreans to risk the kind of
seismic data, conduct atmospheric tests reaction they're getting around the
and do other work he cannot discuss to world, politically, or to take the step
determine what caused the explosion. And of announcing it this way, both the
he notes that the work is being done in international community and their own
several parts of the U.S. government and people, if they weren't trying to explode
by government and private researchers something that had a nuclear component."
around the world. Some analysts say the North Korean
Former Defense Department technology explosion may have been a failed nuclear
official Philip Coyle, who is now with test, or one that worked only partially.
the Center for Defense Information, says The Washington Times newspaper quotes
the North Korean event is particularly unnamed U.S. intelligence officials as
hard to analyze. saying that is exactly what happened. And
He said, "Well, a reason it's taking so a South Korean newspaper quotes a North
long is that it appears to be quite a Korean diplomat as saying the same thing.
small nuclear test. Perhaps less than a That would fit what is known so far about
kiloton, which sounds like a lot but is the North Korean explosion. Philip Coyle
actually small as nuclear devices go." at the Center for Defense Information
The former official, who has 40 years of says there would not seem to be any
experience in nuclear testing and reason for North Korea to do such a small
evaluation, says it is difficult to test intentionally, but the secretive
isolate the impact of such a small state might have wanted to keep the world
explosion among all the seismic movements guessing.
detected by sensors in the region. "If North Korea's purpose here is to be
But he says once the event is isolated, seen as a major nuclear power, you might
experts can determine whether it was an think they would want unambiguous test
earthquake, a conventional explosion or a result[s]. But perhaps they meant to make
nuclear detonation. He says a nuclear it small. It's hard to know," he said.
explosion originates from a much smaller On Tuesday, White House Spokesman Tony
source than an earthquake or conventional Snow said the world may never know for
explosion of the same magnitude. sure whether the North Korean explosion
In addition, Philip Coyle says efforts was nuclear. But the Pentagon spokesman,
have no doubt been made to sample the air Bryan Whitman, said he believes experts
near North Korea. But he says any exhaust will come up with a clear answer.
from such a small test could be very He said, "We don't have to guess. We
difficult to detect, and North Korea says don't have to speculate. We will know in
there was no such exhaust. time. And when we know, I'm sure you'll
Beyond that, Coyle says, intelligence know."
agencies are also likely seeking Whitman would not say how long the
indications of whether the test was real analysis will take, but testing expert
or not. Philip Coyle says he thinks there should
"There may be some intelligence that be a definitive answer within another
intelligence agencies will be able to get couple of days.






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