Experts Still Working on North Korean Nuclear Claim

The U.S. Defense Department says it is stillSecurity Agency will have some information also,"
evaluating data from the explosion and small earthhe said.
tremor in North Korea on Monday to determineAnother analyst, former CNN reporter Mike
whether it was in fact an underground nuclearChinoy of the Pacific Council on International
test, as the North Korean government claims.Policy, who has visited North Korea 14 times,
Nearly two full days after the explosion in Northsays although it is always difficult to know what
Korea, U.S. officials, including Pentagon Spokesmanthe country's leaders are thinking, he cannot
Bryan Whitman, cannot say for sure whether itimagine they would pretend to conduct a nuclear
was a nuclear explosion or not.test.
He said, "We're continuing to assess the event toHe said, "Without being privy to all the scientific
determine the veracity of the claim made by theand intelligence information, my own sense is that
North Korean government that they conductedit would be unlikely for the North Koreans to risk
an underground nuclear test."the kind of reaction they're getting around the
Whitman says it takes time to analyze theworld, politically, or to take the step of announcing
seismic data, conduct atmospheric tests and doit this way, both the international community and
other work he cannot discuss to determine whattheir own people, if they weren't trying to
caused the explosion. And he notes that the workexplode something that had a nuclear component."
is being done in several parts of the U.S.Some analysts say the North Korean explosion
government and by government and privatemay have been a failed nuclear test, or one that
researchers around the world.worked only partially.
Former Defense Department technology officialThe Washington Times newspaper quotes
Philip Coyle, who is now with the Center forunnamed U.S. intelligence officials as saying that is
Defense Information, says the North Koreanexactly what happened. And a South Korean
event is particularly hard to analyze.newspaper quotes a North Korean diplomat as
He said, "Well, a reason it's taking so long is that itsaying the same thing.
appears to be quite a small nuclear test. PerhapsThat would fit what is known so far about the
less than a kiloton, which sounds like a lot but isNorth Korean explosion. Philip Coyle at the Center
actually small as nuclear devices go."for Defense Information says there would not
The former official, who has 40 years ofseem to be any reason for North Korea to do
experience in nuclear testing and evaluation, sayssuch a small test intentionally, but the secretive
it is difficult to isolate the impact of such a smallstate might have wanted to keep the world
explosion among all the seismic movementsguessing.
detected by sensors in the region."If North Korea's purpose here is to be seen as a
But he says once the event is isolated, expertsmajor nuclear power, you might think they would
can determine whether it was an earthquake, awant unambiguous test result[s]. But perhaps they
conventional explosion or a nuclear detonation. Hemeant to make it small. It's hard to know," he
says a nuclear explosion originates from a muchsaid.
smaller source than an earthquake or conventionalOn Tuesday, White House Spokesman Tony
explosion of the same magnitude.Snow said the world may never know for sure
In addition, Philip Coyle says efforts have nowhether the North Korean explosion was nuclear.
doubt been made to sample the air near NorthBut the Pentagon spokesman, Bryan Whitman,
Korea. But he says any exhaust from such asaid he believes experts will come up with a clear
small test could be very difficult to detect, andanswer.
North Korea says there was no such exhaust.He said, "We don't have to guess. We don't have
Beyond that, Coyle says, intelligence agencies areto speculate. We will know in time. And when we
also likely seeking indications of whether the testknow, I'm sure you'll know."
was real or not.Whitman would not say how long the analysis will
"There may be some intelligence that intelligencetake, but testing expert Philip Coyle says he
agencies will be able to get about it, for example,thinks there should be a definitive answer within
picking up on Internet traffic, voice messages,another couple of days.
things like that. In may be that the National