| In November of last year, I wrote an article | | | | none of Israel's strategic goals in the conflict |
| speculating about whether or not the Israelis | | | | accomplished. Public confidence in the government |
| would take the matter of Iran's pursuit of nuclear | | | | was severely weakened, and Olmert may not |
| weapons into their own hands by launching a | | | | have the support he needs to take on Iran. |
| preemptive strike against the Islamic Republic. | | | | Second, unilateral military action by Israel would |
| That column was written in response to a quote | | | | inflame Muslim passions throughout the region, |
| by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert who, before | | | | creating problems for the United States in Iraq |
| leaving for Washington and a meeting with | | | | and increasing the likelihood of a wider regional |
| President Bush, warned that Israel had "various" | | | | war. I think it's safe to say that Hezbollah would |
| options for dealing with Iran. | | | | once again be unleashed on Israeli civilians and the |
| With Iran's rejection of a weak sanctions regime | | | | possibility of Syrian intervention in Lebanon could |
| passed by the ineffective United Nations, and its | | | | not be ruled out. |
| continued pursuit of nuclear technology that would | | | | It is highly unlikely that President Bush would |
| allow the production of atomic weapons, the | | | | agree to support an Israeli military strike against |
| subject of an Israeli first strike is worth revisiting. | | | | Iran's nuclear facilities. The consequences of such |
| It is no secret that Iran, and particularly Iranian | | | | an act are just too severe. What is likely to |
| President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would like to | | | | happen is that the United States, which faces no |
| see Israel "wiped off the map." Iran's quest for | | | | good options for dealing with the government in |
| nuclear technology is part of a grand scheme to | | | | Tehran, and Israel, which cannot act on its own, |
| gain recognition as the most powerful nation in | | | | will be forced to accept a nuclear-armed Iran |
| the Middle East. Iran's power, of course, would be | | | | within the next decade. |
| backed by Iran's status as a member of the | | | | The geopolitical balance of power in the region will |
| nuclear club, a status that would negate a major | | | | change, and Israel will no longer be the sole |
| Israeli advantage over its Middle East neighbors. | | | | nuclear nation in the Middle East. Iran is unlikely to |
| Israel has maintained in the past that a | | | | launch a nuclear attack against Israel, despite the |
| nuclear-armed Iran is simply an unacceptable risk | | | | incessant bellicose rhetoric, because to do so |
| to Israeli national security concerns. But the reality | | | | would be to invite retaliation by Israel, and possibly |
| is that Israel's options for dealing with Iran are | | | | the United States, that would guarantee the fall of |
| severely limited. To begin with, the Olmert | | | | the clerical regime in Tehran. Iran will, however, |
| government is weak and vulnerable. Last | | | | become more emboldened, and will challenge U.S. |
| summer's war with Hezbollah was a disaster, with | | | | and Israeli interests throughout the region. |
| the IDF unable to achieve anything more than a | | | | Unfortunately, for the time being at least, there |
| stalemate against the terrorist group and with | | | | isn't much either country can do about it. |