| > | | | | financially powerful, compared to the other |
| Balkan electricity shortages are looming. | | | | countries in the region. So, Macedonia is unable |
| Conducted: September 2007 | | | | either to invest in the expansion of its electricity |
| Until recently and for four years, Aleksandar | | | | generation or to buy and import electricity. |
| Dimishkovski worked as a business and finance | | | | 4. Is hydroelectric power the solution? What |
| correspondent in Macedonia's best-selling daily | | | | about alternative sources (wind, solar, nuclear)? |
| newspaper, "Dnevnik". In the past year, he also | | | | Will the construction of additional plants solve the |
| served as a personal advisor to the general | | | | problem in the short term? Is microgeneration a |
| manager of a foreign-owned company that has | | | | viable option? |
| established its network in Macedonia. He is known | | | | AD: Hydroelectric power is a definite possibility but |
| as a market analyst and a business consultant and | | | | only in the long term. It takes a while for a hydro |
| has recently founded "BID Consulting". | | | | power plant to be built and become operational, at |
| Q: Has the electricity grid throughout the Balkans | | | | least three to five years, depending on its size. In |
| and in Macedonia in particular improved or | | | | fact it may be the best solution, because |
| deteriorated in the last ten years? How did | | | | Macedonia now uses around 30 percent of its |
| privatization and restructuring influence each of | | | | hydro potential for electricity generation. |
| the components in the chain from electricity | | | | Unfortunately, it can't be used as core energy. It |
| generation to the end consumer? | | | | is too dependant on external influences and |
| AD: The electricity grid throughout the Balkans at | | | | factors, such as the weather. If a dry season |
| this point doesn't differ a lot from the time when | | | | occurs, than the whole system is at risk. But it |
| socialistic regimes ruled this part of the world. | | | | can and it must be used more than the present |
| Considering the time frame, surely it is not | | | | level of usage. Wind and the solar energy are |
| correct to say that the investments done to | | | | good options as well. Nevertheless, they are also |
| increase the quality of the electricity grids and | | | | merely supplements to the basic energy market. |
| especially in the cross-country transmission grids | | | | Nuclear energy on the other hand, is out of the |
| were satisfactory. There was some increase of | | | | question for many reasons, even from a legal |
| inter-transmission capacity, but not enough to | | | | point of view. The Macedonian parliament has |
| ensure the transmission of the demanded | | | | passed a declaration that forbids the use of a |
| quantities of electricity. The quality of the national | | | | nuclear energy for electricity generation on |
| electric grids varies from country to country but | | | | Macedonian territory. Besides that, the geographic |
| is commonly low. Macedonia for instance, has | | | | conditions are very inappropriate for building a |
| network losses of more than 30 percent annually, | | | | nuclear power plant. Even the cooling of a nuclear |
| which is around five times the average in the | | | | reactor could be a problem, because it requires a |
| European Union (EU) countries. | | | | lot of water. |
| On the other hand, the investments in electricity | | | | The best solution is to have combined production. |
| generation pretty much changed the picture in the | | | | As a base or core energy, we could use thermal |
| Balkans regarding which country now has enough | | | | power plants as the situation is now. They run on |
| quantities of electricity from domestic production, | | | | coal extracted from Macedonian territory. This, in |
| which country is able to export and which country | | | | conjunction with the use of natural gas for |
| is an electricity importer. | | | | electricity production could secure Macedonia's |
| What is common to the majority of the countries | | | | energy needs in the next 50 years. |
| in the Balkans now is the fact that they all are | | | | Understandably, this has to be combined with the |
| importers of electricity, with the exceptions of | | | | deployment of renewable sources of energy on |
| Romania and Bulgaria. These two countries have | | | | both the micro and on macro level. |
| done a lot to ensure their position in the Balkans | | | | In any case, the construction of additional plants |
| energy market, even through a privatization | | | | can't be a short term solution, because it takes |
| process, although at this point it may not seem | | | | time for a power plant to be built. For instance: |
| so evident, especially in the case of Bulgaria, | | | | LNG (natural gas) power plants require the |
| because of the shut down of two reactors in the | | | | shortest construction time, yet even this process |
| nuclear power plant Kozloduy. Nevertheless, both | | | | usually takes at least two years. |
| countries - now EU members - are still investing | | | | 5. Electricity in Macedonia and throughout the |
| billions in new electricity generation facilities and | | | | region is heavily subsidized. Do you foresee a |
| they will likely secure the lead on the electricity | | | | reduction in this state support? |
| export side. | | | | AD: Unfortunately, subsidies are one of the |
| However, this is not the case with the countries | | | | biggest reasons for the upcoming energy crisis. |
| of the former Yugoslavia. Most of them managed | | | | Because of the low price, there simply wasn't any |
| to finish the necessary privatization and reforms, | | | | money for investments in electricity generation, |
| but they all seem to have forgotten about the | | | | although in the price structure there is a part that |
| importance of investments in production. That | | | | supposedly should be spent on investments. Even |
| contributed to the current state of things where | | | | now, the price that households pay for electricity |
| the majority of the countries in the Balkans are | | | | and even the price for industry are lower than |
| importers. | | | | they should be. |
| Albania and Greece followed the same tendency | | | | Nevertheless, with the signing of the Athens |
| not to invest, and after 15 years they are still | | | | Memorandum, and the creation of the Energy |
| lacking investments in electricity generation, which | | | | Community, Macedonia is obliged to liberalize the |
| is demonstrated by the increase in the imported | | | | energy market, with a view towards achieving |
| quantities of electricity. | | | | the market conditions present in the EU zone. So, |
| The biggest paradox is that in most countries | | | | subsidies will very soon be out. The qualified |
| there are still incredibly low prices of electricity, | | | | consumers — industrial facilities - will be |
| which are a by-product of omnipresent subsidies. | | | | forced to secure their own deals for electricity |
| These prices can't be supported by any economic | | | | supply in the open market, starting from January |
| or commercial reason, the social aspect | | | | 2008. |
| notwithstanding. | | | | It is predicted that the total liberalization of the |
| 3. You are predicting a crisis in electricity | | | | electricity market will be in place at the beginning |
| generation and provision in Macedonia this coming | | | | of 2015, at which time even households will |
| winter 2007. Can you explain what is this gloomy | | | | choose from whom to buy their electricity. |
| scenario based on? | | | | At this point, the organizational structure of the |
| AD: It is based mainly on the dearth of electricity | | | | electricity market in the country is not well |
| in the whole region. At this point, Macedonia | | | | prepared for these processes, and this could |
| imports around 30 percent of the quantities | | | | contribute towards some delay in the liberalization |
| needed to satisfy consumption. And with the | | | | process. But it is inescapable and with the |
| present level of expected domestic production, | | | | aspirations of Macedonia to become a member of |
| there surely will be a gap between demand and | | | | the EU, the sooner they are implemented, the |
| supply. This is especially so because of the fact | | | | better it is for the integration process as well. |
| that in Macedonia, during the winter months, the | | | | 6. Can you describe the structure of the |
| level of consumption is almost twice as big as in | | | | electricity export market in the region? Who is |
| the summer months. | | | | exporting, who is importing, and who are likely to |
| In fact, because of draught and other | | | | become net exporters and net importers in the |
| summer-related problems, the water potential for | | | | foreseeable future? |
| generation of electricity via hydro power plants at | | | | AD: That's an easy one. Almost all the countries |
| the moment is at very low level, lower than 20 | | | | of the Balkans are net importers, except Romania |
| percent. | | | | and Bulgaria. Recently, even Bulgaria started to |
| Another problem is the steady growth in | | | | import small quantities. But, these two countries |
| consumption. Macedonia has one of the highest | | | | had invested enough to secure their future as |
| rates of growth of electricity consumption in the | | | | exporters of electricity. For instance, Bulgaria is |
| whole region. And the predictions are that in the | | | | rushing to build a second nuclear power plant in |
| medium term, growth will constantly and | | | | Belene, near the border with Romania, which |
| drastically accelerate. | | | | should be finished in around five years. Romania |
| What adds fuel to the fire is the present situation | | | | too, started the construction of another nuclear |
| in the entire region. Albania faced and faces a | | | | power plant. |
| major energy crisis. Greece is constantly | | | | As to the rest of the Balkan countries, there are |
| increasing the its imported quantities of electricity. | | | | some signs of positive change, but it is still |
| In the wake of the closure of two reactors | | | | unclear, who, when and if some of the countries |
| Kozloduy in January 2006, there simply isn't | | | | would be able to become net exporters of |
| enough electricity to go round. The whole region is | | | | electricity. If we exclude Albania whose system is |
| facing an energy crisis. Bulgaria, which was one of | | | | pretty much based on hydroelectric power, the |
| the biggest exporters of electricity in Europe, has | | | | other countries are quite similar. The majority |
| recently started to import it! | | | | have coal-fuelled electricity production as core |
| The Balkans lacks electricity generation facilities. In | | | | energy. This is made possible by their sizes- most |
| such a constellation it is normal for electricity | | | | of these countries have small territories - and by |
| prices to increase. Bearing in mind the fact that in | | | | the unused potential in many of them. |
| many countries electricity prices are still heavily | | | | Still, at this point, it seems like in the near future, |
| subsidized, it is normal to expect problems, even | | | | we shouldn't expect any drastic changes in the |
| from the macroeconomic point of view. | | | | electricity production field in the Balkans. And even |
| Macedonia is maybe in the worst position at the | | | | if something does change, it is likely to be |
| moment. Its market is too small to be interesting | | | | negligible, both from the energetic point of view, |
| for the big European energy "players" and it is not | | | | as well as the financial one. |