| Our strategists, retired diplomats, ex-service | | | | Soviets cutting off their technology transfer on |
| officers and media persons have been engaged in | | | | the nuclear weapons program midway and |
| an intense debate on how to deal with a rising | | | | withdrawing their technicians and stopping all their |
| China which appears to be playing the game of | | | | industrial aid programmers. The conflict worsened |
| nations to our disadvantage. China has had a | | | | to the extent of erupting into armed conflict on |
| decade and half lead in initiating economic reforms. | | | | the Ussuri River in 1989. There were signals of |
| It has consistently maintained a faster growth | | | | Soviet nuclear threat. |
| rate than India. | | | | The great ideologue Mao, who conducted an |
| China has expanded its international trade at a | | | | annual ‘Hate America’ campaign, who |
| pace not conceivable by India. Its military | | | | talked of fundamental antagonistic contradiction |
| modernization and infrastructure development are | | | | between capitalism and socialism and whose pilot |
| very much in advance of India. Its economic | | | | son had been shot down in the Korean war, had |
| decision-making is not hampered by party politics. | | | | no hesitation in allying himself with the US to |
| It is our neighbor and it has an unresolved dispute | | | | obtain extended deterrent security vis-à-vis the |
| with us in respect of Arunachal Pradesh. It has | | | | Soviet nuclear threat. |
| ambitions of being one of G-2 with the United | | | | China provided bases for the US in Xinjiang to |
| States in global financial system. | | | | monitor Soviet nuclear tests when the Iranian |
| Though China disavows ambitions of being a | | | | Ayatollahs closed down the US monitoring bases |
| hegemonic power, it shows all signs of moving | | | | in Iran in 1979. Then come Deng Xiao Peng’s |
| towards that goal. This is evident from its nuclear | | | | economic reforms and opening up of China to US |
| proliferation to Pakistan and supporting | | | | multinationals. The US companies used Chinese |
| Pakistan’s role as a counter-vailer to India, | | | | soil, Chinese labour and Chinese raw materials to |
| opposing the waiver of Nuclear Suppliers Group | | | | make cheap goods to be exported to the US and |
| for India and permanent seat for India in the | | | | the rest of the industrial world. The profits went |
| Security Council. | | | | to the multinationals. The Chinese export surpluses |
| China is likely to overtake the US in terms of | | | | were not used for the benefit of the Chinese |
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the next couple | | | | population but were invested in the US to |
| of decades. In Asia there is only one nation which | | | | enhance the credit availability to the US population |
| is comparable to China in terms of population, | | | | to make them buy more consumer goods. |
| skilled labour force and potential in terms of GDP | | | | Simultaneously, the Chinese reserves grew |
| in the longer run and that is India. It is, therefore, | | | | making China a major holder of US treasury |
| natural in spite of all public declarations to the | | | | bonds, giving it a leverage over the US. |
| contrary that China should view India as a likely | | | | By collaborating with the retail stores chains of |
| future rival and attempt to slow down India | | | | developed countries and providing them access in |
| catching up with it. This should be a natural | | | | China, the Chinese products are being marketed all |
| expectation in realpolitik. | | | | over the world. And China has been transformed |
| There is no point in complaining about it and | | | | from an isolated ideological fundamentalist to a |
| bewailing that China is playing the game of nations | | | | major member of the international community |
| to our disadvantage. It is up to us to catch up | | | | holding spectacular Olympic Games in three |
| with China in a realistic way. | | | | decades. No one will question today the |
| We should bear in mind that some 50 years ago | | | | independence of Chinese foreign and strategic |
| China was bracketed with India. China had its | | | | policies. |
| successful revolution two years after Indian | | | | All this has been achieved not by China ploughing |
| independence. China had two man-made disasters, | | | | a lonely furrow and insisting on self-reliance. From |
| the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural | | | | the beginning, China realized that it has to absorb |
| Revolution which resulted in 30 million deaths. | | | | investments and technology from the international |
| China from its revolutionary birth till 1990 for 40 | | | | system wherever they were available. Then |
| years faced continuous security threats from | | | | come the added realization that market access |
| superpowers. In spite of all that travail, China has | | | | was needed and that in turn called for international |
| become the second powerful nation in the world | | | | collaboration. Instead of adopting a jingoistic |
| and its manufacturing hub and one of the | | | | attitude towards the challenge posed by China, |
| significant leaders of international financial system. | | | | there should be calm unsentimental strategic |
| How did they do it and are there lessons in it for | | | | planning on how to deal with this problem. |
| India? | | | | India has a number of advantages. It is an |
| The Chinese knew how to manipulate the | | | | English-speaking, democratic country. Its rise as a |
| international system to their advantage. Even as | | | | power does not cause concern to the international |
| they were fighting their revolutionary war to | | | | community unlike the case of China. The entire |
| capture power they made overtures to the US | | | | global arms market is open to India while China |
| arguing they were not Soviet-type Communists. | | | | has at present no access to the US and European |
| However, the Americans in their short-sightedness | | | | markets. India’s entrepreneurial system is |
| rejected their signals and firmly aligned | | | | better tuned to the international one. |
| themselves with the Kuomintang. Mao set out to | | | | Major Powers have a stake in not allowing China |
| woo a not- too-friendly Stalin. He agreed to | | | | from becoming an undeterred hegemony in Asia. |
| Stalin’s harsh terms and obtained the Soviet | | | | In the longer term, India has the advantage of a |
| military and economic aid. | | | | younger age profile even as China will be ageing. |
| China had to fight the Korean war and incur | | | | Therefore, the debate on the Chinese challenge |
| hundreds of thousands of casualties. The Soviet | | | | should be conducted on constructive lines instead |
| aid was used to industrialize China rapidly and | | | | of the present display of unbecoming chauvinism. |
| develop its military forces and the military | | | | Most of our people have forgotten that India did |
| industry. The US used to transgress China’s | | | | invoke the countervailing Soviet factor when |
| territorial waters and its airspace regularly. The | | | | faced with the Pakistan-China-US line-up in 1971. It |
| Chinese used to issue 457th, 571st and so on | | | | is the stake of major powers in India as a |
| serious warnings to the US but observed restraint. | | | | potential balancer in Asia that resulted in |
| Their relationship with the Soviet Union | | | | technology denial regime against us being ended. |
| deteriorated due to ideological differences with the | | | | |