| Introduction | | | | as build a viable and deliverable nuclear weapons |
| Since the early seventies Iran has been seen as | | | | capability". |
| an important regional player in the Middle East and | | | | So, the revolution, the war with Iraq and more |
| Gulf region. However, after the fall of Saddam | | | | recent conflicts in the Middle East changed Iran's |
| Hussein in 2003, Iran was largely ignored. Israel's | | | | vision of the world with regard to foreign and |
| conflicts with its neighbours were seen as the | | | | security policy. Major allies turned into major |
| main sources of regional instability and the | | | | enemies after 1979; the U.S. and Israel became |
| Palestinian issue was seen as the root cause of | | | | Iran's biggest foes in the Middle East. Iran fears |
| the region's problems. Because of this many, | | | | U.S. presence in the region as it may destabilize |
| mostly European, policymakers focused strongly | | | | the country's position. Furthermore, Iran sees |
| on settling the Palestinian question while ignoring | | | | itself as a competitor with Israel's hegemonic |
| the situation in Iran. Iran has been in the news for | | | | position in the Middle-East. Since 1979 Iran's |
| the last year because of its nuclear program, | | | | foreign policy has been dictated by the need to |
| which is of importance to the whole international | | | | maintain sovereignty and independence, this can |
| community. In this essay we will consider the | | | | be seen in the light of past interventions and |
| geopolitical background of Iran in the region, after | | | | interferences by regional and global powers. A |
| that we will take a look at the geopolitical | | | | religious dimension is also of importance in its |
| importance and strategic implications of developing | | | | policies, as well as maintaining good relations with |
| nuclear weapons by Iran. | | | | countries not seen as a threat to the country. |
| Iran's foreign policy history within the Middle East | | | | Nuclear weapons within the regional context |
| To understand the country's current geopolitical | | | | As considered above, the security situation is of a |
| position within the region and its apparent wish to | | | | great importance to the country, considering |
| develop nuclear weapons, it is necessary to | | | | historic events. These events have created a |
| understand the country's geopolitical history within | | | | sense of isolation. Iran has learned that they do |
| the region of the Middle-East. Special attention will | | | | not want to depend on anyone, to be prepared |
| be paid on the period around and after the | | | | for anything at all times and to deter the outside |
| revolution of 1979. | | | | world. A military modernization program, including |
| Centuries ago the famous French political theorist | | | | developing nuclear weapons technology, has been |
| Jean Bodin said that foreign policies of countries | | | | set in motion since the events of the 1970s and |
| are determined by their geographical location. This | | | | 1980s. The importance of Iran's nuclear weapons |
| is certainly applicable in the case of Iran. | | | | program has been highlighted in recent years. To |
| Twenty-five centuries of Persian history tells us a | | | | what degree is this program of importance to |
| story of an Empire with huge ambitions; including | | | | Iran's regional power? |
| conquests of Babylon, Egypt and Persian rule up | | | | It has consistently denied the existence of a |
| to the Nile Valley. However, the geographic | | | | nuclear weapons program since the time of the |
| position has also made the country vulnerable to | | | | Shah, at the same time it has consistently |
| great power interference. This fear for foreign | | | | acknowledged a nuclear research program and in |
| intervention has strongly formed Iran's foreign | | | | insisting it needs for nuclear power for peaceful |
| policy until today. Iranian history, geographic | | | | purposes. So, Iran has always been able to point |
| position, size and demographic status suggests to | | | | to nuclear power as an excuse for its activities. |
| Iranian leaders that the country rightly deserves a | | | | The question is whether it needs nuclear power |
| dominant position in the region. Nowadays Iran is | | | | energy, as it has the second-largest reserves of |
| surrounded by countries as Armenia, Azerbaijan, | | | | oil and gas in the world. So it is necessary to |
| Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and | | | | consider the underlying motives for developing |
| Iraq. One of Iran's major concerns is its security | | | | nuclear weapons. Ayatollah Khameini, Iran's |
| policy, as the country is surrounded by friendly | | | | supreme leader, justifies his country's nuclear |
| and unfriendly nations. | | | | programme on the basis of scientific |
| In the early 1950s the elected nationalist | | | | advancement, self-sufficiency and political |
| government of Mohammed Mossadeq was | | | | independence. The perception of the West, Israel |
| overthrown by a coup engineered by the U.S. He | | | | and some Arab Gulf countries, is that Iran is not |
| was replaced by the Shah Mohammed Reza | | | | developing the programme for civilian purposes |
| Pahlavi, who ruled Iran from 1941 until 1979. Under | | | | but is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Since |
| the Shah the country became a major player in | | | | the arrival of President Ahmadinejad, the country |
| the Persian Gulf with U.S. support. Iran benefited | | | | has hardened its nuclear policy. It has stated on |
| from extensive U.S. financial and military aid, so | | | | many occasions that it is not developing nuclear |
| that it could police the Gulf region and contain | | | | weapons, while at the same time stating that the |
| Soviet Union's influence. It also played an active | | | | country has the right to have nuclear technology. |
| role in the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). | | | | Iran always speaks about "peaceful purposes" of |
| CENTO's goal was to contain the Soviet Union | | | | its program and that it's opposed to nuclear |
| during the Cold War. After the withdrawal of | | | | proliferation. There are different reports on the |
| British troops in the 1970s, Iran de facto became | | | | actual status of its nuclear program; the IAEA |
| the guardian of the Gulf. The Shah also | | | | revealed in 2003 that its inspectors found parts of |
| consolidated his country's military and security | | | | highly enriched Uranium in Natanz, however the |
| relationship with Israel. The Shah was keen on | | | | U.S. Nation Intelligence Estimate suggested that it |
| downplaying the role of Islam (and thus the | | | | halted its program in 2003. Defense Secretary |
| clergy) in his policies, he was a modernizer | | | | Gates still believes that Iran wants to continue to |
| focused on a nationalistic campaign to establish | | | | develop nuclear weapons and it seems clear that |
| Iran as a regional power in the Middle East. The | | | | Iran continues to enrich uranium, which is |
| regime of the Shah forged political consensus | | | | necessary for civilian and military nuclear |
| within the country by playing the nationalism card, | | | | programs. Certainly the development of ballistic |
| providing economic development, modernizing the | | | | missile technology and other long-range systems |
| military and establishing real growth through the | | | | is of importance, as they could threaten Europe |
| export of oil. The clergy blamed all the problems | | | | and the United States in the future. |
| on the Shah's dependency on the United States. | | | | Whatever the status of Iran's nuclear program is |
| In 1979 the Shah was ousted and Imam Ayatollah | | | | at the moment, Dr Irani, Professor on the Middle |
| Rhollah Khomeini returned from exile. The reasons | | | | East, believes that by developing and enhancing |
| for the revolution of 1979 can be found in Iran's | | | | nuclear capabilities Iran will become a major player |
| state of the economy in that period; stagflation | | | | at the regional level, as well as being able to |
| and unemployment were extremely high. There | | | | assert its deterrent capabilities against potential |
| was also a strong opposition against the Shah | | | | enemies in the region, such as Israel. Cordesman |
| who had a wealthy lifestyle, this was seen in | | | | and Al-Rodhan agree with this assessment in their |
| connection with his relation to the U.S. Most of the | | | | book "Iran's weapons of mass destruction", the |
| money was spend on military equipment instead | | | | ability to use long-range missiles and the |
| of domestic infrastructure. In addition, the Shah | | | | possession of nuclear weapons will be of much |
| created an atmosphere where repression was | | | | importance to its strategic posture in the region. |
| associated with the U.S. and deceit and treachery | | | | Shahram Chubin underlines this assumption, he |
| survived at all levels of government and society. | | | | sees a nuclear capability as a symbolization of the |
| This has formed the country's way of thinking | | | | country's quest for regional leadership. Nuclear |
| until today, as Graham Fuller puts it: "Mistrust | | | | capabilities provide Iran with a means to block the |
| became the first line of defense". Modernization | | | | U.S. inspired regional order, which is seen as a |
| did not bring to many Iranians what they | | | | threat to the country and the management of |
| expected and many of them turned to religion for | | | | regional security issues in the region. Iran is more |
| an answer, this made it possible for Khomenei to | | | | interested in good relations with countries like |
| step into the power vacuum and seize power. | | | | Russia and China, in order to reduce U.S. influence |
| After the revolution it took on a different foreign | | | | in the region and enhance its own influence. |
| policy. The hostage in the U.S. Embassy in Tehran | | | | Ayatollah Khameini, criticizes the U.S. and Israel for |
| changed its relations with the U.S., they were no | | | | their opposition to the country's nuclear program: |
| longer seen as allies. On the contrary, hostility | | | | "They are opposed to the progress and |
| would best characterize their relationship | | | | development of the Iranian nation. They do not |
| afterwards. The U.S. stopped cooperation with | | | | want an Islamic and independent country to |
| Iran in the military and nuclear field, and put | | | | achieve scientific progress and possess advanced |
| pressure on other countries to do the same. This | | | | technology in the Middle East region, a region |
| change in attitude of the U.S. showed its | | | | which possesses most of the world's oil... They |
| perspective on what was good for the Shah, was | | | | want Iran's energy to be always dependent on oil, |
| not good for the Imam. The fundamental guiding | | | | since oil is vulnerable to the policies of world |
| principle of the Iranian revolution with regard to its | | | | powers. They aim to control other nations with |
| foreign policy was Khomeini's slogan 'Na Sharq, Na | | | | invisible ropes". Most analysts seem to agree that |
| Gharb, Faqat Jumhuri-ye Islami' - 'neither East, nor | | | | the country's nuclear program is a way to |
| West, only the Islamic Republic'. Since the Iranian | | | | enhance its regional influence in maintaining peace |
| revolution its foreign policy is guided by support | | | | and stability without foreign interference. For |
| for oppressed peoples of the world and their | | | | example it would see itself as a broker for |
| struggle for justice, solidarity with and support for | | | | regional problems such as the Israeli-Palestinian |
| Islamic groups and opposition to the U.S. The | | | | conflict. |
| country's revolutionary leadership wanted to | | | | The balance of power would certainly be altered if |
| speak in the name of Islam and promote Shi'ism, | | | | Iran becomes a nuclear power, as it would pose a |
| this caused tensions in its relations with Saudi | | | | challenge to Israel's nuclear supremacy. It could |
| Arabia and other important Islamic (mostly Sunni | | | | also lead to an arms race in the Middle East and |
| dominated) states and actors in the Muslim world. | | | | Iran would pose a threat to U.S. troops in the |
| After 1979 a new order had to be established in | | | | region. These nuclear ambitions appear menacing |
| the country. Almost immediately after the | | | | in the region, relations with Saudi Arabia are |
| revolution Iran was also involved in a war against | | | | strained over Iraq, and Turkey sees Iran's bid for |
| Iraqi forces under Saddam Hussein, who launched | | | | stronger regional influence as dangerous. The |
| a large scale offensive in September 1980. Early in | | | | smaller Gulf states are more occupied with |
| the war Iran impressively won battles and repelled | | | | terrorism and not reassured by Iran's policies. The |
| Iraq. Iran then pushed on to Iraq and tried to | | | | Saudi leadership has been clear about the |
| topple Saddam Hussein, however it quickly found | | | | consequences of a nuclear Iran. Prince Saud |
| itself unable to fight against the modern military | | | | al-Faisal has said a nuclear Iran "threatens disaster |
| hardware of the Iraqi's, which was provided for | | | | in the region". However Saudi officials have said |
| by the West. Two Iraqi weapons were especially | | | | the problem lies in the double standard of the |
| troublesome; tactical ballistic missiles (SCUDS) and | | | | West towards Israeli nuclear capabilities. There |
| chemical weapons. Iran was outraged by the | | | | have been official statements by senior Saudi |
| silence of the Western world when Iraq used | | | | officials, who said that a possible response to |
| chemical weapons, which was a clear violation of | | | | Iran's nuclear weapons might be developing |
| international law. After eight years of war, Iran | | | | nuclear weapons themselves. The same may |
| had learned many lessons. The main lessons for | | | | apply to a country like Egypt. The Arab League |
| the country were that they could not rely on the | | | | supports the position of a nuclear free Middle East. |
| international community where its defense and | | | | The League has said Iran's nuclear ambitions are |
| security was concerned, that some states would | | | | tied to Israel's nuclear capabilities, because it |
| not be bound by rules when it came down to war | | | | serves as an incentive for countries to develop |
| and that Iran should be prepared for anything. It | | | | weapons with a similar capacity. The Egyptian |
| understood it would not receive any assistance | | | | Muslim Brotherhood has said that if Iran would |
| from the West against Iraq unless it was in the | | | | become a nuclear power it would be considered a |
| West's interest. The Iranians also saw that the | | | | disaster, as the country would gain more influence |
| West was unwilling to intervene and stop Iraq's | | | | to establish a Shi'ite crescent. As the United |
| use of chemical weapons. Because the war was | | | | States has failed to address Israeli nuclear |
| taken into the cities of Iran, the Iranians learned | | | | capabilities in formulating policy towards Iran's |
| that having a credible deterrent force of its own | | | | nuclear program, Iran's neighbours seem to be |
| is extremely important. As Iran had none it was | | | | understanding of their wish to develop nuclear |
| extremely vulnerable. By the end of the 1980s | | | | nuclear weapons, even though the danger of it |
| Iran was regionally at odds with Iraq, Kuwait, | | | | seems clear to them. Iran's neighbours have three |
| Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, | | | | options to respond to a nuclear Iran: acquire their |
| Morocco, Tunisia, North Yemen and Afghanistan. It | | | | own WMD and missile capabilities to deter Iran, |
| only had friendly relations with Syria, South | | | | develop a missile defense shield and/or ask the |
| Yemen and Libya, and maintained normal relations | | | | U.S. or Pakistan to extend their nuclear deterrence |
| with Algeria, Pakistan and Turkey. However the | | | | to include them. Former Foreign Affairs Minister of |
| end of the war (whereby Iran unconditionally | | | | Germany Joschka Fischer explained the situation in |
| accepted Security Council Resolution 598) opened | | | | the Middle East perfectly: "The most important |
| the door to normalization of relations with many | | | | shift in the Middle East has been a shift in the |
| Arab Gulf neighbours, except Saudi Arabia and | | | | region's political and military center of gravity... |
| Iraq. The end of the war with Iraq (which was an | | | | While Israel, Palestine and Lebanon defined the |
| Arab ally of the Soviet Union) also made it | | | | most important hot spots in the old Middle East, |
| possible for Iran and Russia to improve their | | | | regional power and politics in the wake of the Iraq |
| relations on the military, political and economic | | | | war is now centered in the Persian Gulf. The |
| front, which continued improving even more after | | | | dominant conflict is no longer the Israeli-Palestinian |
| the collapse of the Soviet Union. The relations | | | | struggle, but the threat of confrontation between |
| with Pakistan and Turkey improved, especially as | | | | Iran and Saudi Arabia for sub-regional supremacy |
| both these countries, together with Iran, were | | | | and between Iran and the U.S. for regional |
| the founders of the Economic Cooperation | | | | hegemony". |
| Organization. This was particularly important to | | | | Conclusion |
| Iran as it was surrounded by Arab alliances (Arab | | | | No one can ignore Iran anymore in the politics of |
| Cooperation Council and Gulf Cooperation Council). | | | | the Middle East, as the country has become an |
| During the Persian Gulf war of 1990 Iran took on | | | | important regional player over the last thirty |
| a neutralist stance, this helped the country to | | | | years. The national and regional history of the |
| improve relations with its Arab neighbors, such as | | | | country, which is filled with conflicts and foreign |
| Jordan, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Morocco. | | | | interference, has influenced the country's security |
| The improvement of relations with some of | | | | and foreign policy thinking up to today. |
| these countries continued into the 1990s. | | | | Independence and sovereignty have become the |
| However the Gulf crisis also provided a catalyst | | | | key words in its foreign policy. In that regard a |
| for more (military) influence of Western powers in | | | | stronger influence in the region is important to the |
| the region, which Iran saw as troublesome. In the | | | | country, and certainly the development of nuclear |
| post-Cold War era Iran has tried to work against | | | | weapons supports that line of thinking. In other |
| U.S. interests and attract non-U.S. western capital, | | | | words, pragmatism prevails over ideology. The |
| on the other hand it tried to deepen regional | | | | position and policies of Iran in the region will be of |
| cooperation with ECO, GCC, South Asian groups | | | | much importance to the international community |
| and improve its alliances with Syria, China, North | | | | in the years to come. Certainly the President of |
| Korea, Russia, India, Greece and Georgia. Lastly, | | | | the United States, Barack Obama, will need to |
| recent conflicts in the Middle East region have | | | | focus on Iran if stability and security are to be |
| been of importance to Iran, in particular the | | | | achieved within the Persian Gulf and the greater |
| Afghanistan war of 2001 and the Iraq war of | | | | Middle East. The recent approach of President |
| 2003, which have showed U.S. conventional | | | | Obama towards the country can be seen as a |
| superiority. But also the Lebanon war of 2006, in | | | | first step in the right direction of developing |
| which Iran supported Hezbollah against Israel, can | | | | mutual understanding and enhancing diplomatic |
| not be forgotten. These events in the region | | | | relations. Time will tell whether Iran is willing to |
| have forced the country to improve its military | | | | follow up on this approach, whether the U.S. is |
| forces, however the economic costs of creating | | | | seriously interested in closer relations with Iran |
| a military force comparable to Saudi Arabia or | | | | and whether other key global and regional players |
| Israel is huge. In this regard nuclear weapons are | | | | such as Israel, Russia, the EU and Arab countries |
| important to consider; a nuclear weapon capability | | | | will be able to contribute to a constructive |
| would not necessarily mean that a modern | | | | development of stability in the region. It is hopeful |
| conventional force is not necessary, but as Perry | | | | that cooler heads will prevail and in the long term |
| puts it: "to drive events in the Middle East, Iran will | | | | fruitful solutions will be found to address deep |
| have to continue to modernize its forces as well | | | | feelings of hate and hostility within the region. |