| -> | | | | significantly. |
| | | | When upgraded, the missile can fly up to 3500 |
| The showcase military maneuvers, which Iran | | | | km. Translated into geo-strategic terms, this |
| started last week, displayed warheads capable of | | | | means Paris, Amsterdam and Berlin are in range. |
| carrying a nuclear payload. This threatens all of | | | | To the east, India and China are threatened by |
| Europe. Why do some still believe the "civilian | | | | the missile, although China does not have much to |
| purposes" lie? | | | | worry about, since ballistic advancements in Iran |
| Last week, Iran began another military maneuver, | | | | rely a great deal on Chinese technology. Other |
| dubbed "Greatest Prophet". The maneuver is a | | | | countries are threatened by the missiles, but they |
| follow-up to the "Great Prophet" drill, which ran | | | | are not of strategic importance. |
| during April. According to Yahya Rahim Safavi, | | | | Another aspect of the Shahab 3, which was |
| Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards, | | | | highlighted in the test, was its dividing warhead. |
| the drill will involve maneuvers on land, sea and air, | | | | This is a warhead intended to carry nuclear and |
| in the desert near the city of Qom, in the Persian | | | | chemical payloads, and is of no use for delivering |
| Gulf and on the Sea of Oman. | | | | conventional payloads. The warhead divides three |
| In the last few weeks, the US army began a | | | | times: first when the warhead splits off from the |
| series of maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. The | | | | body of the missile; second, when an altitude fuse |
| Iranian drill is termed a response to the American | | | | removes the envelope of the warhead; third |
| show of force, although this is unlikely, as | | | | when an additional altitude fuse triggers the |
| preparations for a drill of this magnitude would | | | | payload of the missile, which can be either nuclear |
| require much more time for preparation. | | | | or chemical. According to American experts, such |
| Based on the information gleaned from the drill, | | | | a warhead is a perfect fit for a nuclear bomb |
| Israel and the rest of the world should pay | | | | developed by Pakistani military industries. |
| attention to the ballistic arsenal on display. This is | | | | The Shahab 3 is not impervious to the Arrow, |
| for two reasons: One, Iran does not have any | | | | either. If the Arrow statistics are accurate, then |
| important innovations to show in any other | | | | the Shahab upgrade does not change the |
| military areas. The Iranian army is strong and well | | | | strategic regional balance. To this we should add |
| trained, but it uses technologies familiar to the | | | | that in the Arrow tests conducted by the US and |
| West, so no surprises there. The second reason | | | | Israel, the tests were performed against missiles |
| is that the best way to deliver a nuclear bomb | | | | similar to the Shahab 3. |
| nowadays is via a ballistic missile. As Iran | | | | |
| continues its progress towards such a bomb, the | | | | Shahab 4 - The Iranians Conquer Space |
| ballistic threat assumes a more dangerous | | | | The Shahab 4, which according to different |
| coloration. | | | | publications is already operational, was not tested |
| In this article, we will focus on the various Iranian | | | | in the "Greatest Prophet" maneuver. However, |
| achievements in ballistic missile development. | | | | this is a good time to analyze the missile and its |
| | | | capabilities. |
| Shahab 2 - Cluster Warheads | | | | The missile is based on the R12, a famous Soviet |
| One of the achievements reported by the Iranian | | | | missile. In 1998, the missile was tested, and |
| news agency IRNA was a special warhead | | | | according to Iranian statements, it is only intended |
| mounted on the Shahab 2 missile. This is a | | | | for launching satellites into space. Despite the lack |
| warhead which releases 1,400 bomblets, each the | | | | of strategic importance of launching an Iranian |
| size of a hand grenade, upon hitting the ground. | | | | satellite into space, it has sweeping importance as |
| According to foreign publications, the test of this | | | | a statement. Launching a satellite is the traditional |
| warhead was a success. | | | | way of announcing a nation's entry into the |
| What are the strategic ramifications of this? | | | | nuclear club. |
| There are none of real importance. Cluster | | | | The Iranians currently operate the satellite Sina-1, |
| warheads are no revolution in warfare. A smaller | | | | which was launched from Russian soil on October |
| version of these warheads can be mounted on | | | | 2005. It is a spy satellite of rather paltry |
| the "Grad" rockets, which the Palestinians have | | | | capabilities. In fact, this satellite was supposed to |
| had for some time. The likely reason why the | | | | be the companion of another satellite, "Mesbah", |
| Iranians are touting this achievement in the | | | | which was destroyed during its launch. |
| warhead is that we are dealing with independent | | | | Despite being intended for space, the Shahab 4 |
| Iranian development rather than an imported | | | | has many tactical abilities, and in all likelihood |
| technology. | | | | possesses a longer range than Shahab 3. |
| Reuters news agency, which reported the | | | | |
| experiment, interviewed Duncan Lennox, editor of | | | | The Israeli Response: Prevention and Deterrence |
| "Jane's Strategic Weapons System", an arms and | | | | For Israel, the drill offered no any new |
| weaponry journal, and asked him about the | | | | information. To the world, Iran has declared that it |
| warhead. He confirms that it is not an important | | | | intends producing a nuclear weapon, and that it |
| strategic innovation. | | | | can use it when it does. |
| For Israel, the most important feature of the | | | | |
| Shahab 2 missile is its range. This missile, a smaller | | | | From this we can draw two conclusions: |
| relative of the Shahab 3, has a range of 1,300 | | | | The first is that any Western diplomat who still |
| km. In other words, if fired from Iranian territory, | | | | believes Iran's statements that its nuclear |
| no location in Israel is safe from it. The | | | | program is intended for civilian purposes only, is an |
| assortment of warheads it can carry, including | | | | irredeemable fool. Iran says that its nuclear |
| nuclear warheads, is troubling. | | | | program is for civilian purposes, when it does not |
| Not only Israel is in range. All of Turkey is | | | | even bother to conceal the proof that it is lying. |
| threatened, as well as a large part of Saudi | | | | You do not have to be Mohamed El Baradei, |
| Arabia. These two countries are considered | | | | director-general of the International Atomic |
| moderate Middle-Eastern states and play host to | | | | Energy Agency, to know that nuclear facilities for |
| many large American bases. | | | | civilian purposes have no use for plutonium and |
| However, Israel has an answer to the Shahab 2: | | | | heavy water, of which Iran has recently proudly |
| The Arrow Interceptor missile. This is an Israeli | | | | announced possession. It is a no-brainer that Iran |
| development funded by the USA, which according | | | | would not be bragging about the Shahab 3's |
| to different publications has a remarkable | | | | dividing warhead if it did not intend to mount a |
| statistical accuracy of 90% hitting targeted | | | | nuclear bomb on it. This willingness to accept the |
| missiles. When confronting a missile bearing a | | | | Iranian position, as Russia and France do, even |
| nuclear warhead even 90% is not enough, but | | | | half-heartedly, is dangerous to the world. The |
| tactically, it is sufficient. | | | | price tag for military action in Iran is very high, |
| | | | given the economic disaster anticipated as a result |
| Shahab 3 - Long Range and Nuclear | | | | of shutting down the oil supply. But the price for |
| Shahab 3 is the most advanced "ground to | | | | avoiding such action is much higher. The day Iran |
| ground" missile tested during the drill. Its special | | | | achieves nuclear capability marks the dawn of a |
| feature is its long range. Normally, it can fly up to | | | | darker age. |
| 2,500 km from the launch site. When launched | | | | The second conclusion is that Iran still threatens |
| from Iran, the capitals of Greece, Italy, Poland, | | | | Israel. The best way for Israel to deal with the |
| Austria and Russia are within range. | | | | Iranian threat, is to prolong the current situation, |
| But it does not end there. From different | | | | where Iran does not launch missiles at Israel, in |
| publications in the Iranian English media, the Iranian | | | | other words, prevention and deterrence. In order |
| News Agency, and different websites, we can | | | | to defend itself from the various Shahabs, Israel |
| conclude that the Iranians have developed a | | | | must prevent Iran in any conceivable way - from |
| significant upgrade to the Shahab 3. This missile is | | | | diplomatic to military - from launching its missiles. |
| based on the North Korean Nodong missile. When | | | | Of course, having the Arrow on hand does not |
| it is upgraded with systems from a Russian | | | | hurt. |
| missile (R12 or SSN6), its range improves | | | | |