Indo-US relations in Post Cold war era and its implications for Pakistan

 nuclear program.
Introduction2. Indian nuclear facilities that were only partially
The Cold War parameters of international relationssafeguarded could not use American high
which had been based on the conflict of twotechnology.
alliance systems are undergoing radical shifts. In3. Case-by-case agreements could be reached
the great chessboard of the 21st century newwhereby dual-use technologies would be cleared
trends in the international arena are nowfor use in un-safeguarded and partially
influencing US Cold War policy preferencessafeguarded facilities, if the use involved office
indicating new choices that will determine theadministrative tasks and not nuclear material
direction of its relations in the new century. Thedirectly.
changing nature of US relations with Japan, itsThe establishment of an army and navy
reconciliation efforts in the Korean peninsula, aExecutive Steering Group in 1992, and the
growing, yet cautious opening up with China, and aairforce in 1993 led to the first ever military
constructive engagement with India clearlyexercises on regular basis. By 1997, the two had
reflects a paradigm shift in the structure of manysponsored five joint exercise between the army,
of its ‘traditional’ Cold War relations in theairforce and navy In this regard three separate
efforts for a new strategic configuration.groups were established to foster more
In the scheme of American grand strategy forinteraction and facilitate discussion:
the 'new world order’, India has emerged as- Defence Policy Group (DPG), for tackling issues
an attractive regional ally. With a population ofof defence co-operation. The group also tackles
over a billion people, relatively stable political andsensitive issues like CTBT and Kashmir.
economic structures, and growing conventional- Joint Technical Group (JTG), for discussing issues
and nuclear power, India is seen in the Whiterelated to defence research.
House as a country which may prove to be aJoint Steering Committee (JSC), for discussing
useful partner in meeting challenges confrontingpersonnel and information exchange, as well as
the United States' policies within South Asia andjoint excercises.
the larger Asia-Pacific region.2) Economic co-operation
In its efforts to bring India closer to US position,With the concept of ‘global village’
the US Congress since 1993, has sought ‘newincreasingly gaining credence, globalization of world
assistance categories reflecting moderneconomies is viewed as a phenomenon for
realities’ which would fulfil the requirements ofspeeding the process of accelerating economic,
the post-Cold War concerns. This approach hastechnological, cultural and political integration, and is
found the scales of US policy preferences tiltingincreasingly affecting events that had previously
considerably in favour of India despite abeen seen in the larger context of superpower
commitment to follow an ‘even-handed’military competition across the globe. Much of the
approach in relations with Pakistan and India.current US policy towards many regions of the
Consequently, the thrust of this growingworld is focused on the opportunities offered by
relationship at the expense of valid regionalthe dynamics of global economy based on the
concerns of its once ‘most allied ally’ hasnotions of free market economics transforming
become increasingly evident. While India has beencommerce, culture, communications and global
getting away with its nuclear programme andrelations. Other problems that once seemed
worst kinds of abuses in the occupied state ofdistant, such as resource depletion, rapid
Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan has had to bear thepopulation growth, environmental damage, new
brunt of not only economic and military sanctions,infectious diseases have increased US direct
but has been under tremendous pressure by thestakes in the prosperity and stability of other
United States to control religious extremists andnations in their support for international norms and
militant activities from its territory.human rights, their ability to combat international
The Indo-US dialogue following the nuclear testscrime, in their open markets, and their efforts to
of 1998, has led to the crafting of a multifacetedprotect the environment.
partnership in the post-Cold War milieu between. The ‘global reach’ of the US has made it
the two ‘largest’ democracies. The 10thclear that the latter is interested in developing
round of Indo-US talks held in London in Januarytransnational relations affected by the growing
2000, discussed the possibility of institutionalisingrole of markets, industrialisation and the pace of
these bilateral consultations on a number of issueseconomic development. In this regard India is seen
regarding defence and security, economic relationsas one of the ten largest emerging markets
and strategic co-operation, dialogue on nuclearwhich the US needs to tap in future. Ambassador
non-proliferation, and other issues of concern suchSusan Esserman, deputy US trade representative
as drug trafficking, small arms and terrorism.speaking to the Federation of Indian Chambers of
These concerns of the new millennium have nowCommerce and Industry in November 1999,
provided the material for a more broad-based,made it clear that “our administration supports
forward looking ties.a strong and prosperous India, which is a leader
The Vision document signed by President Clintonand full partner in the trading system”.
and Prime Minister Vajpayee during this sojournIn spite of co-operation both countries have their
“resolve(s) to create a closer and qualitativelyshare of disagreements on such issues as -
new relationship between the United States andunjustified quantitative restrictions, minimum
India” on the basis of “common interest inimport prices on steel imports, investment rules in
and complementary responsibility for ensuringthe auto industry, and access to Indian markets
regional and international security.” Thefor services and textiles. Nonetheless, following
document signed on March 21, 2000, declared thatPresident Bush’s visit both countries have
India and the US were partners in providingpledged to reduce impediments to bilateral trade
“strategic stability in Asia and beyond. Thereand investment and to expand commerce,
can be little doubt that in the new US strategyspecially in the emerging knowledge-based
towards South Asia, India seems to have beenindustries and high-technology areas such as
assigned a role despite the US nuclearinformation and computer software.
non-proliferation policy. Clinton’s visit failed to3) Nuclear Co-operation
focus on the real issues of regional concern: the“Halting proliferation (of nuclear weapons) is
issue of Kashmir and the dangers of India’snot an option for us - it is an absolutely essential
growing nuclear programme. The President’sobjective of our national security and a crucial
statements on the most vital issue - Kashmir -factor determining our country’s future. It is,
preventing peace in the region did not point toone might say America’s new Manifest
any specific US commitment to its solution; ifDestiny”
anything, it was Pakistan who was warned againstIn 1974, six years after the signing of the NPT,
drawing borders with blood.India with its ‘peaceful nuclear explosion’
Moreover, seen in the context of the Vision(PNE), became the second Asian country and the
Statement of “working together to preventsixth in the world to demonstrate such a
proliferation”, and the Indian declaration of itscapability in spite of the US State Department
nuclear doctrine in August 1999, the US failed towarning (under the Nixon administration) in 1970,
engage India in any meaningful discussion onthat “the US would consider it incompatible
nuclear disarmament. India and Untied Stateswith existing US-Indian agreements for American
represent a fifth of the world’s people, andnuclear assistance to be employed in the
more than a quarter of the world’s economy.development of peaceful nuclear explosive
Both have built creative, entrepreneurial societies,devices”.However, a month after the Indian
and both are leaders in the information age, and inPNE, the US agreed to reschedule India’s
many ways, the character of the 21st centuryforeign debt and increase economic assistance to
world will depend on the success of (their)India in cooperation with other allies by about
co-operation for peace, prosperity, democracy$200 million.
and freedom.In spite of these measures to prevent nuclear
The Nature of Indo-US Relationsproliferation, in 1980, the Carter administration
The US ‘tilt’ towards India evidentfound it convenient to agree to the supply of fuel
throughout the 1990s is not really a newfor India’s Tarapur plants in violation of the
phenomenon, in principle since 1947, two basicNNPA in order for strengthening “ties with a
objectives have dominated US policy towardskey South Asian country” in the wake of
South Asia:major foreign policy challenges to US interests in
1. A mutually beneficial relationship with Pakistan.the region following the Iranian Revolution and the
2. Seeking increased co-operation with India.Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan.
Because of the initial US reluctance to get tooEven though the Indian PNE provided a
deeply involved in the subcontinent, the regionmomentum to legislations in the US for halting
was tagged as a ‘low priority’ area in thenuclear proliferation, the US found it convenient to
overall US policy. Nevertheless, even within thecontinue cooperation with India despite its refusal
context of reinforcing Pakistan and establishmentto sign the NPT, and later in 1996 its refusal to
of friendly relations with India in spite of thesign the CTBT, and finally, five overt nuclear tests
latter’s communist leanings and a treatyin May 1998
relationship with the Soviet Union, it was felt withinSeveral factors have emerged that call for
the US policy circles (e.g John Foster Dulles) thatgreater cooperation and US engagement of India
despite, “treaty alliances such as SEATO withdespite its overt nuclearization:
Pakistan......Bharat must be given greater aid than1. The Indian tests have confirmed what the US
an ally of the US because it was making genuinestrategic community has always assumed: that
efforts to develop institutions of freedom”.India is a nuclear-capable state.
Such sentiments, however, did little in terms of2. That India, like China, will continue to be
advancing any meaningful co-operative relationshipcommitted to nuclear energy as one of the
between the two paragons of democracy. Whilemeans of alleviating its energy shortfalls.
the US saw India through the HollywoodThis flows from the second, that given India’s
portrayals of the British Raj, many Indiansenergy shortfalls, its nuclear sector can be a large
including Nehru, saw US through the left-wingmarket for external investors
British lens as not only racist, but as the best fieldWith particular reference to nuclear proliferation,
for the study of economic imperialism.however, four elements are considered to be of
Consequently, despite slogans of democracy as autmost importance:
common factor, US and India remained1. Adherence to the CTBT.
‘estranged democracies’.2. A moratorium on the further production of
However, the only time that the US and India didfissile material.
actively co-operate was during the Indian conflict3. Demonstration of prudence and restraint in the
with China in 1962. Fears of the ‘awakeningdevelopment, flight testing and storage of ballistic
giant’ opened the doors of US assistance tomissiles and nuclear-capable aircraft.
Indian nuclear programme bringing in assistance in4. Strengthening of export controls.
training, materials, and technical know-how likeBut even as the sixth Review Conference on NPT
plutonium enrichment and fabrication of a limitedin April-May 2000, deplored Indian and Pakistani
number of plutonium fuel elements for insertionnuclear tests, there are reports that India may be
on a test basis in the Tarapur and/or Rajasthancontemplating its eighth nuclear test of a
reactors during their initial phase of operation. Ithydrogen device. The report goes on to say that
did not last very long, overcome by mistrust,after testing the hydrogen bomb India may make
miscues, and mishaps.moves to be the first in the subcontinent to sign
. US policy makers felt that India, backed by athe CTBT in order to gain the benefits which may
large and improving military force and a growingaccrue as a consequence of this move.
advanced industrial economy could no longer beThe above discourse on Indo-US relations points
treated merely as a pawn in the world powerto a basic pattern of mutually beneficial
strategies. It was felt that the goal of drawingco-operation despite the ebb and flows over the
India closer to the US would serve as model ofCold War years. One of the key factors which
progress for the developing countries, becausebrought US attention towards India was its close
“India is both a developing country and also anrelations with the Soviet Union. The US continued
industrial power, (and is) in a position to promoteto engage India because it did not want to lose it
constructive international discussion about trade,to the USSR, considered India as a potential ally
energy, investment, balance of payments,against China, and an important market in terms
technology and other questions”.of the post-Cold War environment. 
In what became known as the Reagan Doctrine,Indo-US Strategic Co-operation: Implications for
the US administration emphasized improvementPakistan
of relations with India even as it increasedWhile the Cold War order gave a definite shape
economic and military assistance to Pakistan.to the nature of threat, there is little agreement
Within the ambit of this doctrine, three goals wereover the shape of the emerging international
of paramount importance:order. The whole concept of security has
1. The US desired better US-Indian ties becauseessentially become a contested concept. Where
they could help in preventing the opening of aonce security thinking centred on the idea of
two-front confrontation for Pakistan.national security largely defined in military terms,
2. Substantial improvement of US-Indian relationsmany contemporary security threats: globalization
could be used to better Indo-Pakistanties.and the prospects of realignments in the global
3. American support for the expulsion of thefinancial and trading system effecting
Soviets from Afghanistan was important formonopolization, human rights, proliferation of
regional security and a key element of theweapons of mass destruction, drugs and
Reagan Doctrine.terrorism are now having an impact on the nature
Seen from the perspective of the above goals,of traditional alliance systems.
India figured as an important element of thePakistan was significantly different in contrast to
American foreign policy thrust even as thethat conveyed to India. Clinton’s address to
Soviets ravaged Afghanistan.the Pakistani nation carried a blunt warning that
Throughout the Reagan years, the USPakistan needs to critically examine its place in the
encouraged good relations between India andregion and the sort of society it wishes to build,
Pakistan as it was felt that both these countriesand that there is a very thin line between support
could play an important role in maintaining peaceand sympathy and total collapse as “there
and security in South Asia and work for a Sovietwas a danger of Pakistan growing even more
withdrawal. The emergence of new threats in theisolated, drawing even more resources from the
form of a defiant China and radical Islam haveneed of the people. Pakistan must help create
brought India and US to share new opportunitiesconditions that will allow dialogue to succeed and
for co-operation. India is now considered not onlypursue reconciliation for the sake of the
to be a potential huge ‘market’, but alsofuture.”
a country that may be a willing surrogate forGiven the Indian efforts to strengthen their
containment of these ‘new enemies’ bothconventional military capabilities, the intentions of
within the larger Southern Asian region and theincreasing their maritime boundaries, the blatant
Indian Oceanuse of force against neighbours, and the silence of
Indo-US relations in the Changing Environmentthe international community, it would not be too
“The question arises whether we can distilpresumptuous to suggest that India may have
from past international politics as viewed by somebeen given the nod to go ahead on its agenda of
of our wisest interpreters a body of commonestablishing itself as the South Asian policeman
principles or a core of residual truths”. Kennetheven if it means using force against recalcitrant
W. Thompson. American Approaches toneighbours. The invitation to India to attend the
International Politics.community of democracies meet in Warsaw in
. While the US no doubt remains the mostJuly 2000, indicates that it has been accepted to
powerful force, this does not decrease thestand as a peer among nations who determine
importance of the emergence of new powerthe destinies of lesser states.
centres in the 21st century. In any of itsThis will only serve to increase the discord
international relations, three core objectives are ofbetween India and Pakistan, which has been of
paramount importance to the United States:great concern to the US, as any efforts to bring
1. Enhancement of its security.the two countries to a dialogue table have
2. Bolstering its economic prosperity.assuredly been in favour of India. In his trip to
3. Promotion of democracy abroad.South Asia, President Clinton made it clear that
, with the growing phenomenon of globalization,the US will not mediate between India and
there is now a growing competition of political,Pakistan as far as the settlement of the Kashmir
economic, ideological, and cultural relations in aissue is concerned. While the US has chosen to
gradually evolving multipolar world. In this context,castigate Pakistan for its support to the so-called
relations between India and US have taken a new‘terrorists’ in Kashmir, presence of
turn. Where once the US had been cautious about700,000 Indian forces has been completely
Indian non-alignment and its penchant for theignored. The message is quite evident. Any
Soviet Union, policy circles within and outside theinitiative on making ‘innovative’
White House have, in current times, sought toconcessions must come from Pakistan and bring
engage New Delhi for a more co-operative andchanges in its Kashmir policy which has been a
stable relationship. In this regard, threesource of three conflicts in South Asia, and is
fundamental variables form the crux of theregarded as the ‘fuse’ which may lead to
growing Indo-US relations:the use of nuclear weapons by the two countries.
1. Defence and security considerations concerned A report known as the Livingston Proposal by
with the problems of the strategic balance ofthe Kashmir Study Group led by an American
power.Kashmiri, Mr. Farook Kat Wari titled “Kashmir:
2. Economic relationships involving the flow ofA Way Forward” which suggests three
economic resources which the Indian market canfundamental solutions for settling the Kashmir
provide.problem. The first envisages the creation of two
3. Spread of nuclear weapons in the South AsianKashmiri entities, one on each side of the line of
region which can create instability and maycontrol, each with its own government,
precipitate local nuclear conflicts which might drawconstitution, and special relationship with India, and
in major powers.or Pakistan. The second proposes a single
In spite of the fact that the US has been tryingKashmiri entity straddling the line of control with
to court both India and Pakistan, evidence of itsits own government, constitution and special
approach suggests that it does not equate therelationship with both India and Pakistan. The third
two. The US has important but quite differentenvisages only one entity on the Indian side of
interests regarding the nature of its relations withthe line of control. The proposal explores ideas
India and Pakistan. Numerous recent examples ofand options for rationalising the line of control in
its preferential approach can be cited viz. mildconjunction with creating one or two
reactions to Indian Kargil air bombing in May 1999,reconstituted Kashmiri entities imbued with
use of chemical gas, increased human rights“Kashmiriyat” (the cultural traditions of
violations in Kashmir, a tacit acceptance of theKashmir), and relating to the creation of free
Indian nuclear programme despite its stubborntrade zones and open borders initially relating
stand on CTBT which clearly points towardssolely to the area of the new Kashmiri entity or
delusions of a ‘super power’, andentities, but subsequently expanded to the whole
co-operation on terrorism despite Indianof the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, or
sponsored Tamil terrorism in Sri Lanka.cover an even wider region.
While both India and Pakistan have come underUS pressures on Pakistan for democracy, the rule
pressure to accept the US non-proliferationof the law, and the development of its civil
agenda after their nuclear tests negotiations in thissociety, indicate that the Cold War US preference
regard have been particularly favourable withfor its most ‘allied ally’ has come to an
regard to India.end. President Clinton in his report to the
Given the fact that US interests in South Asia areCongress and his address to the Pakistani nation
not vital but nevertheless important, US approachon March 26th, 2000, clearly signalled that
to relations with India needs to be seen in theWashington will now be dealing with India and
context of several factors which have figuredPakistan “in terms of their own individual
prominently in the attention of its policy makersmerits and reflecting the full weight and range of
towards this region. These include:US strategic, political and economic interests in
1)      The danger of nuclear and missileeach country”.
proliferation which have dominated US thinking. Many in Pakistan regard the US attitude as unfair
2)      Encouraging dialogue between India andand a symbol of American discrimination. On the
Pakistan to resolve their outstanding disputes,other hand, America has demonstrated increasing
particularly Kashmirunderstanding of India’s security concerns.
3)      The rise of terrorism threatening USThe United States also seems to have bought the
interests.Indian argument that these concerns had more to
4)      The opportunity of benefiting fromdo with China than with Pakistan. As stated by
one of the world’s largest markets andStrobe Talbot, “we realise, that for India, the
growing commercial opportunities.issue of deterrence is complicated by China
5)      Strengthening democracy, which isfactor”.the growth of Islamic fundamentalism
seen as advancing United States' own interestsis regarded as a security threat to the US and its
including its security interests since democraciesallies. The need to control this phenomenon has
are considered more likely to abide by theirbrought strong US pressures on Pakistan in terms
international commitments, more likely to beof controlling and eliminating various fundamentalist
stable trading partners, less likely to interfere ingroups in its territory and across Afghanistan.
the affairs of their neighbours, and less likely toWhile India and the US have established a Joint
make war on each other.Working Group on Counter-terrorism, Pakistan has
While the American perceptions over the Coldbeen under pressure to control Islamic militants.
War years were built on the basis of the SovietBoth India and the United States have found a
threat and the nature of its relations with India,common ground for co-operation in this
the latter’s relatively democratic set-up, itsphenomenon.
strategic and scientific potential combined with theA State Department report on "Patterns of Global
significance of the ‘big emerging market’Terrorism, 1999" released in April 2000, states
have now forced American policy makers not tothat Pakistan is one of the only three countries
treat South Asia as a whole.that maintain formal diplomatic relations with the
The US approach to its current phase of relationsTaliban regime in Afghanistan which permitted
with India seem to be predicated on the fact thatmany known terrorists such as Osama bin Laden
India having ‘lost’ its Soviet patron, whichto reside and operate from its territory. The US
is by no means a correct assumption keeping inhas repeatedly asked Pakistan to end its support
mind the economic and military co-operation withto elements that conduct militant activities in
Russia, will now be more co-operative in dealingAfghanistan and Kashmir.
with global issues such as human rights, freeConclusion
trade, proliferation of weapons of massIn the post cold war period, the US and Indian
destruction, and might even be interested in someinterests will indeed increasingly converge on the
kind of security arrangement against China, Iranideological front. The Indian strategy of connecting
and Iraq which are seen as threatening vitalwith the United States on the issue of terrorism
American economic interests, if properargues that it holds the first line of defence
inducements are offered. A permanent seat ofagainst the threat of terrorism that emanates
the UNSC for India has now become a subject offrom Pakistan. While the speculations arising out of
intense debate.Indo-US co-operation in combating terrorism that
Elements of Strategic Co-operationthe United States will declare Pakistan a state
In making a case of sustained US effort to bringsponsoring terrorism seem to be misplaced, the
India into its fold and to prove that itsimplication of such statements is that Pakistan will
‘tilt’ has not been a recent phenomenon,be put under pressure to help the US achieve its
it would be helpful to look into some of theobjectives in this regard in the region.
elements of their co-operation immediately beforeThe image problems, “bad behaviour” by
and after the Cold War.Pakistan has influenced US policy preferences and
1)    Military and Technological Co-operationhas generated policy changes with regard to its
It will be pertinent to recall that during the Coldrelations in South Asia indicating that the US will
War years India found more support in securityincreasingly be relying on India for ensuring regional
terms from the Soviet Union than the distantand international security. Even during the Cold
United States for four main reasons:War, the US had viewed India as being more
1. The Indian governing elite saw the US as arelevant to its strategy of ‘containment’,
dynamic, imperialist power, actively involved inthese have now been overtaken by new
supporting Pakistan, and bent on preventing Indiachallenges which need to be ‘contained’
from playing its due role in regional affairs andsuch as terrorism, narcotics, proliferation of small
beyond.arms, and most important of all elimination of
2. Soviet conflict with China made it an idealIslamic groups imbibed with the concept of
balancer to deter Chinese action against India.’jihad’. The latter has been of grave
3. The Soviet Union was a reliable source ofconcern to the United States.
military equipment and diplomatic support inGiven the rivalry with China and the increasing
India’s contention against Pakistan overAmerican presence in the Indian Ocean, there
Kashmir, and defence against China in Ladakh andseems to have been an erosion in the Indian
the Northeast Frontier Area (NEFA).vision of nonalignment. Over the last five decades,
4. American tendency to dictate its allies wasIndia has evolved a set of policies and strategies
seen as an impediment to independent foreignin order to play a dominant role in the South Asia
policy.and the Indian Ocean hoping to be recognised in
In its search of allies in South Asia, the US foundthat role by the great powers
Pakistan to be an eager ally, as India professed. In recent times, the country seeks a more
non-alignment and refused to join military alliances.offensively oriented strategy in order to deal with
But while the US preference for Pakistan pushedthe complex strategic dilemmas related to internal
India into a friendship treaty with the Soviet Unionunity and potential threats from outside. Today,
who became a willing partner in transfer ofmore than ever, all Indian geo-strategic planning
military equipment and technology to India, the USseeks to: prevent any of India’s smaller
continued to engage India on grounds that if Indianeighbours from recourse to foreign policy or
was lost to the communists “for practicalsolicitation of external support deemed inimical to
purposes all of Asia would be lost”Indian interests..
With the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan inFor all serious observers of international relations,
December 1979, the US felt “that the stakesit must be apparent that the strategic dynamics
were high, and the chance to reduce Sovietof US interests no longer see Pakistan as a stable
power offered an incentive for the United Statespartner for securing strategic interests in and
to improve relations with India.”  In Octoberaround South Asia. Moreover, despite the Indian
1981, the US-Indo defence relations took a turnlitany of China being a major factor in its larger
towards the positive, as both countries consideredsecurity concerns, there is no longer a possibility
the benefits of mutual co-operation during theof a India-China dispute developing into a conflict,
frequent visits of American officials to the region.rather the possibility of a nuclear confrontation
According to Robert Wirsing, “it seemed tobetween Pakistan and India seems a likely
some observers of Washington’s developingpossibility. And, with the United States now more
arms policy in South Asia that its role wasconcerned with access to economically viable
excessively and unnecessarily lopsided, and that amarkets, the emphasis is on extracting maximum
meaningful effortÉmight enable Washington tomercantilian advantages rather than any serious
capture a share of Indian arms import trade”.concern for resolving contentious issues in the
In 1984, both countries signed a memorandum ofregion.
understanding (MOU) on technology transfer onWhile this does not mean that the US will ignore
assurances that such transfers would bePakistan in any regional security arrangement, it
protected from leaks and would only be used fordoes, however, mean that it will be making
agreed upon purposes. However, in May 1985, itefforts to promote India as the dominant power
was discovered that there was no provision forin South Asia. Already, there have been efforts to
certain high-technology items such as computersbring India as a permanent members of the
that had possible end-use applications for nuclearUNSC. While India may not be willing to play the
projects. In a separate commodity controlUS surrogate, in terms of the vastly changed
agreement it was agreed that:international environment, it is bound to attract
1. US technology was not to be used ingreater attention from the United States.
un-safeguarded areas or facilities of India’s