| India and Pakistan, as two nations united by | | | | Hence, new strategies and tactical concepts have |
| history but divided by destiny, are almost like two | | | | to be adopted and the conflict has to be fought |
| estranged siblings. Their rivalries over five decades | | | | on a pattern other than war. |
| have prevented both the countries from realizing | | | | This is because of the fact that Kashmir dispute |
| their full economic and geopolitical potential. | | | | is potentially one of the most dangerous disputes |
| Since the founding of India and Pakistan as | | | | in the world. With both India and Pakistan declaring |
| separate states in 1947, the dispute over who | | | | themselves to be nuclear powers with a string of |
| should control Kashmir has been one of the | | | | nuclear tests, signs are not good. |
| world's most enduring and violent conflicts. There | | | | It is worth recalling that the world has already |
| are also signs of a religious conflict at play, pitting | | | | saw a huge deployment of troops on both sides |
| predominantly Hindu India against Muslim Pakistan. | | | | of the border in 2002 as India reacted to an |
| There has been a paradigm shift since the initial | | | | armed attack on the National Parliament in Delhi, |
| stages of insurgency in Kashmir. The direct, bold, | | | | the previous December. |
| loudly eulogized direct strategy of the insurgents | | | | India said the attack was carried out by |
| establishing themselves as protectors of the | | | | Pakistani-based militants assisted by the Pakistan |
| people of Kashmir and suitable spreading their | | | | Government - a charge always denied by |
| cause through the media, has since seen many | | | | Pakistan. In the worst-case scenario, the Kashmir |
| changes in the methodology. | | | | dispute would trigger a nuclear conflict. Aside from |
| It is worth recalling that the territory of Kashmir | | | | that, the separatist militancy and cross-border |
| was hotly contested even before India and | | | | firing between the Indian and Pakistani armies has |
| Pakistan won their independence from Britain in | | | | left a death toll running into tens of thousands and |
| August 1947. Under the partition plan provided by | | | | a population brutalized by fighting and fear. |
| the Indian Independence Act of 1947, Kashmir | | | | According to experts, religion is an important |
| was free to accede to India or Pakistan. | | | | aspect of the dispute. Partition in 1947 gave |
| The Maharaja, Hari Singh, wanted to stay | | | | India's Muslims a state of their own: Pakistan. So a |
| independent but eventually decided to accede to | | | | common faith underpins Pakistan's claims to |
| India, signing over key powers to the Indian | | | | Kashmir, where many areas are |
| Government - in return for military aid and a | | | | Muslim-dominated. |
| promised referendum. | | | | In theory, the population of the |
| Since then, the territory has been the flashpoint | | | | Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir |
| for two of the three India-Pakistan wars: the first | | | | is over 60 per cent Muslim, making it the only |
| in 1947-48, the second in 1965. In 1999, India | | | | state within India where Muslims are in the |
| fought a brief but bitter conflict with | | | | majority. |
| Pakistani-backed forces that had infiltrated | | | | The LoC divides Kashmir on an almost two-to-one |
| Indian-controlled territory in the Kargil area. | | | | basis: the region in the east and south, with a |
| Theoretically speaking, there was a sudden | | | | population of about 9 million, falls into the |
| mushrooming of a number of jihadi groups in | | | | Indian-controlled state of Jammu and Kashmir, |
| mid-1990s in J&K. With the purse strings | | | | while the Pakistani-administered Kashmir to the |
| tightly controlled by the Pakistani leadership, the | | | | north and west, with a population about three |
| supposedly indigenous struggle of freedom for all | | | | million, is labelled by Pakistan as "Azad" (Free) |
| in Kashmir became a Pakistan-sponsored fight of | | | | Kashmir. China also controls a small portion of |
| terror. This was backed by Pakistan's military | | | | Kashmir. |
| might, especially with regard to artillery support, | | | | The US has an "interest" in seeing if a "final |
| intelligence sharing and provision of training in the | | | | settlement" of the Kashmir issue can be reached, |
| well-established training camps at select places | | | | and is trying to help build on the progress made |
| with instruction being imparted on latest explosive | | | | by India and Pakistan on the "composite dialogue". |
| techniques. | | | | "The US is not a mediator. But we respect the |
| In recent years, the tactics of the terrorists has | | | | considerable progress that's been made by |
| changed and it has some sort of relation with | | | | Pakistan and India in the composite dialogue and |
| their level of indoctrination and the employment of | | | | we're just trying to help build whatever we can |
| fidayeen squads hitting the well-protected and | | | | on that progress," pointed out the US Under |
| fortified Army establishments. On the other hand, | | | | Secretary of State, Nicholas Burns, recently. |
| the Security forces have also been changing their | | | | The friction between India and Pakistan is relevant |
| strategies from seek-and-destroy missions to | | | | to the rest of the world not only because both |
| cordon and search missions to boxed-in specific | | | | are the newest members of the nuclear club; it |
| missions. | | | | also affects the stability and economic potential of |
| The technology for both, the terrorists and the | | | | region that includes more than a billion people, |
| security forces have also been constantly | | | | some 950 million in India alone. |
| changing with a one-up mode. If the terrorists | | | | There is, of course, a pervasive cynicism in South |
| used a particular band-width spectrum for | | | | Asia concerning Indo-Pakistan relations, which sees |
| communications or a frequency band-width spread | | | | all peace negotiations as doomed enterprises. But |
| for remote controlled IEDs, then the security | | | | one needs to examine the context of present |
| forces developed a counter. A counter forced the | | | | negotiations carefully to assess the chance for |
| terrorists to change the pattern resulting in yet | | | | better outcomes. What factors produced the |
| another counter by the security forces and the | | | | current rapprochement? Have changes in the |
| game goes on. Even the weaponry and | | | | international environment (especially the 9/11 |
| communication equipment have been constantly | | | | attacks) played a transformative role? The |
| modified and updated. | | | | mainstream media around the world recently |
| But the question to be asked at this point of time | | | | have praised Indian and Pakistani leaders for |
| is why there is a situation of deadlock in the | | | | engaging in dialogue and welcomed interventions |
| Kashmir issue between the two countries? It's | | | | of US diplomacy to avert escalation of a |
| because of the fact that no side is willing to give | | | | potentially nuclear conflict. |
| an inch to another. Islamabad says Kashmir should | | | | Regarding Kashmir, India has moved away from |
| have become part of Pakistan in 1947, because | | | | its hard stance that it would not negotiate until |
| Muslims are in the majority in the region. Pakistan | | | | border incursions stopped. It has also withdrawn |
| also argues that Kashmiris should be allowed to | | | | some of its troops. Pakistan, on its part, has |
| vote in a referendum on their future, following | | | | relaxed its demand that a plebiscite be conducted |
| numerous UN resolutions on the issue. | | | | to resolve the dispute. Neither country any longer |
| On the other hand, India does not want | | | | claims the whole of Jammu and Kashmir. Citizens |
| international debate on the issue, arguing that the | | | | in each country are beginning to see that a |
| Simla Agreement of 1972 provided for a | | | | compromise is needed. |
| resolution through bilateral talks. India points to the | | | | What factors have influenced Pakistan? One is |
| Instrument of Accession signed in October 1947 | | | | recognition of the growing disenchantment of |
| by Maharaja Hari Singh. Moreover, both India and | | | | Pakistani middle class citizens over Kashmir policy. |
| Pakistan reject the option of Kashmir becoming | | | | The media and intelligentsia have raised questions |
| an independent state. | | | | about the high cost of Pakistan's support of |
| From large counter-reactionary force, the Army | | | | Kashmir's secessionist struggle. This policy resulted |
| had to adept to small mission-oriented groups with | | | | not only in diplomatic isolation but a decline in trade |
| the need of quick real time information being | | | | and tourism and a serious lag in technology |
| made available only through proper local contacts | | | | development. Such a policy also fostered |
| and the quick reaction teams proving to be | | | | confrontation with India, and the development of |
| extremely effective in the conflict. Use of | | | | nuclear weapons as a consequence of |
| helicopters and satellite imagery was also | | | | "militarization". Further, the support of Islamic militia |
| extremely effective, keeping the terrorists on the | | | | damaged Pakistan's image abroad while, |
| move at regular intervals. The construction of | | | | domestically, these religious groups began a |
| fence right along the Line of Control (LoC) also | | | | gradual "Talibanization" of civil society, causing |
| had an effect on lowering the scales of infiltration | | | | discord and sectarian divisions. |
| although, in the long run, it may prove to be | | | | Theoretically, the Pakistani establishment realizes |
| rather costly and counter-productive. Mine-laying | | | | that its 14 year-old policy of trying to bleed India |
| and other obstacles being created, on the lines of | | | | through Kashmir has failed. India has not only |
| a conventional war-counter systems do lend | | | | absorbed the damage, but has won a good deal |
| toward complacency and in my view are not the | | | | of sympathy from the international community, |
| best means of inflicting casualties on the terrorists. | | | | especially the US. |