Dirty Bomb Attack : Assessing the Risks

According to statistics from the Internationala schedule that operates within a reasonable
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), smugglerstime-and-cost framework.
attempting to traffic radioactive material haveThe health impact of a dirty bomb attack
been apprehended more than 300 times sincedepends in part on the type and quantity of
2002. Most of these incidents have occurred inradioactive materials deployed. It depends also on
Europe. The smugglers have mainly been fromenvironmental factors such as prevailing wind
Eastern European countries and their motivationconditions at the time of the attack. The risk
appears to have been monetary - the prospectbecomes elevated in the case of a device that
of making a fast buck.makes use of powdered alpha emitting material -
Since 1993 the IAEA has also recorded 16sometimes referred to as a "smoky bomb".
confirmed cases in which highly enriched uraniumHowever experts are generally agreed that for
or plutonium has gone missing. These are only thethe majority of people in a greater urban area
recorded cases and they also involve traffickers.that has experienced a dirty bomb attack, the
There are many war zones around the worldhealth risks are low.
however, where it is difficult for the IAEA toAndrew Karam of the Rochester Institute of
monitor this type of trafficking activity, so theirTechnology calculated that even in the case of a
statistical profile may not accurately reflect thefairly potent bomb using a radioactive cobalt-60
extent of the problem.rod, people within a half mile radius of the
Although some of the radioactive material hasexplosion would only receive a few tenths of a
been tracked to Eastern bloc nuclear sites,rem (a rem is a unit of radiation). People receive
radioactive waste found in the possession of0.3 - 0.4 rem average dose per year from natural
traffickers has also been traced to medical andsources, and workers in radiation facilities receive
laboratory facilities.an average dose of 1 rem or less annually. The
Experts are divided on whether or not a terroristdose from a dirty bomb attack in Karam's
organization such as Al Qaeda would be capableestimation "would probably not lead to many, if
of exploiting weapons and materials acquiredany, cancer deaths".
through black market sources in order to stage aThe main health impact in the short term would
nuclear attack. However most agree that Alrelate to the psychological trauma induced by an
Qaeda is capable of producing a so-called 'dirtyattack of this sort. Exposure to radiation is
bomb'.especially terrifying for most people since radiation
Most often the term 'dirty bomb' refers to ancan't be seen and has been linked to an elevated
RDD, or radiological dispersal device. This is arisk of developing cancer later in life. In immediate
bomb that combines radioactive material withterms, the fear factor is likely to be more of a
conventional explosives. Unlike a conventionalconcern than the risk posed by radiation. The
terrorist bomb, the primary objective of an RDDtrauma could lead to anxiety-related heart attacks
isn't to target civilians directly with the explosion -and other panic related health issues.
rather the explosion disperses radioactive materialIn the view of some security analysts, a dirty
over a wide area, in an attempt to create fearbomb attack is overdue. It is widely believed that
and disruption.Al Qaeda has the ability to make and deploy a
Recent Federal research in Canada looked at thedirty bomb. A British man, Dhiren Barot, recently
potential fall-out from a device containing 20 curiespleaded guilty to conspiring to attack civilians in the
of americium-241 (a by-product of plutonium).UK and US using a radioactive dirty bomb. He
Researchers created a hypothetical post-attackintended to target underground parking facilities
scenario, looking at everything fromand well known buildings in the US such as the
decontamination costs to the impact onInternational Monetary Fund and the New York
productivity and tourism. The estimated economicStock Exchange.
cost of a dirty bomb attack on a city such asPreparedness and prevention are vitally important
Toronto for example, has been calculated atin the face of a possible dirty bomb attack.
around $23 billion.According to Canadian Public Safety Minister,
The main value of this type of attack from theStockwell Day, Canada has put "considerable
terrorists' point-of-view would be their ability toeffort" into addressing the issue. Preventative
create massive disruption and generate a climatemeasures are important at air terminals, sea
of fear and uncertainty. A wind-borne radioactiveports and other points of access. Recently
plume would spread over an area the city,Ottawa International Airport acquired 25
resulting in widespread contamination. Many nationsdetectors specifically designed to identify
lack the technology needed in order toradioactive materials.
decontaminate a densely populated urban area on