Confronting Iran

With the passing of U.N. Security CouncilIraq. The United States could opt for air strikes,
Resolution 1737 on December 23, the worldwith either limited attacks on critical facilities such
moved ever closer to an all-out war in the Middleas Bushehr and Natanz, or a more comprehensive
East. The resolution, which reaffirmed theset of strikes against many of Iran's known and
commitment of the United Nations to the Treatysuspected nuclear sites. Any attack, though, would
on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,require complete surprise, so there would
imposed a regime of weak sanctions against Iranprobably be no indication of an impending strike or
for its refusal to stop the enrichment of uranium,bellicose rhetoric from Washington.
a critical component of any nuclear weaponsAn attack by the United States would incur
program.serious repercussions, not only within Iran, but
While the resolution was a largely symbolic effortalso across the entire Middle East. To begin, the
that did little more than present a seeminglyIranian people would likely see an attack as an
unified Security Council response, the real effectattempt to interfere in their country's internal
of the measure was the removal of a majoraffairs, resulting in increased support for the
diplomatic hurdle to the use of force to stop orclerical regime and Ahmadinejad as citizens rushed
delay Iran's nuclear progress.to "rally around the flag."
There is little doubt among the world's nationsIran would no doubt promote more violence in
that Iran has become the greatest threat toneighboring Iraq, especially among the Shia in the
stability in the Middle East. In its push to becomesouth, and could use proxy Hezbollah to launch
the most powerful nation in the region, Iran hasattacks against Israeli military and civilian targets,
fomented unrest among Iraq's Shia, supportedforcing an Israeli response that could prompt
terrorist ally Hezbollah in a brutal summer warSyrian intervention and Muslim outrage, both at
with Israel, and aggressively pursued a nuclearIsrael's involvement and what would be perceived
program that it claims is for peaceful purposes,as yet another U.S. attack on Islam, throughout
but which the world strongly suspects is athe entire Middle East. The Russian government
concerted effort to acquire nuclear weapons.would be infuriated about an attack on its financial
In dealing with Iran, there are simply no goodinvestment in Iran's nuclear program, and would
options available. Negotiations have thus farprovide covert and possibly overt support for
yielded no progress, with Iran rejecting veryIranian actions that would create problems for the
attractive incentives packages from the EuropeanUnited States in the region as the conflict quickly
Union and the west, and with any additional offersspiraled out of control. Nations friendly to, or at
such as normalized diplomatic or economicleast tolerant of the United States, would find it
relations likely to be rejected as well. The Iraniandifficult not to alienate the United States while
leadership, including President Mahmoudappeasing populations supportive of their fellow
Ahmadinejad and chief nuclear negotiator AriMuslims.
Larijani, have repeatedly stated that Iran willIn the end, the consequences of a military strike
never give up its right to nuclear technology.against Iran probably outweigh any benefits to be
Sanctions, especially the ones recently imposed bygained by delaying the Islamic Republic's progress
the Security Council, will have a negligible effect attoward a nuclear weapon capability. The risk of a
best. Historically such measures have provenMiddle East war means the United States and
ineffective, particularly when the goal is to targetEurope may have no other option but to accept
something the sanctioned nation deems as vital orthe reality that Iran will one day join the club of
extremely important. Russia and China, bothnuclear powered nations, knowing that the
heavily invested in Iran, will not undertake actionsmassive arsenals of the west will likely prevent an
that will harm their financial interests, no matterIranian first-strike against Israel or any other
what is expected of them under the provisions ofnation. Such an act by Iran would be an invitation
the U.N. resolution. Unless a great majority ofto the west to retaliate in a manner that would
other nations is willing to actively enforce a realguarantee the demise of the Iranian regime.
sanctions package, Iran will be unaffected by suchMake no mistake about it, though. A
measures in its quest for nuclear weapons.nuclear-armed Iran will be emboldened in its quest
The futility of continued negotiations and theto become a regional, and ultimately global power,
minimal effectiveness of U.N. sanctions make theand will take advantage of every opportunity to
use of force a much more likely option. But is achallenge U.S. interests in the Middle East. Israel will
military strike a realistic possibility, and what areno longer be the region's sole nuclear state and will
the potential consequences of preemptive action?have to accept that the fundamental balance of
An attack against Iranian nuclear facilities wouldpower in the Middle East has shifted. None of this
likely be carried out by the United States, withbodes well for a long-suffering region desperately
possibly an assist from our British allies. Any sortin need of peace and stability. But the reality is
of ground invasion involving U.S. forces is highlythat of all the options facing the United States
improbable, with major ongoing American troopand the west, the acceptance of a nuclear-armed
commitments to the conflicts in Afghanistan andIran is the one fraught with the fewest perils.