Can the USA Be Fossil Fuel Independent by 2050?

This question is becoming a key cornerstone inelectricity to 70, 000 homes.
our prediction for the health and prosperity of theThe Knowledge Problem Blog extroplated the
future United States of America. Experts areavailable data to estimate future generation
beginning to predict that our worldwide sourcespotentials. Three square miles yields a 280 MW
for crude oil will have peaked in production bycapacity plant. Using the 70,000 homes number, a
2050 at the latest and the production quality willlittle calculation gives a 38 percent capacity factor
then be declining. If we stay dependent on thisfor the plant, so that implies the plant will produce
declining resource we will forever be held hostageabout 932,000 MHz per year. If all of the state's
to the Middle East oil producing countries.electric power needs were generated using similar
Today, each man, woman and child in the USAtechnologies and assuming constant economies of
(300,000,000 citizens) on the average sendsscale, it would take about 236 square miles (or
$40.00 per day or a total of $500,000,000,000.00about 1.2 percent of the land within the state) to
per year (oil priced at $100.00 per barrel) to theaccommodate the necessary solar power plants.
oil producing countries in order to maintain ourA further calculation estimates that 36, 000
addiction to fossil fuels. There are no indicationssquare miles of land would be require generating
that the price for crude oil will be decliningthe U. S. electrical needs. The American Scientific
significantly. We will have market fluctuations butarticle estimates that there are 250, 000 square
the overall trend is a continuing increase in themiles of land in the Southwest that is suitable for
price of a barrel of crude oil. We, in the US, needthe use of solar generation.
to retain these dollars on our shores and breakHow do the residents of Arizona feel about this
the hostage chains of crude oil from the Middleland use potential? Arizona governor Janet
East. If this is accomplished then we canNapolitano has been quoted as saying, "There is
determine the future health and prosperity of theno reason that Arizona should not be the Persian
USA.Gulf of solar energy." Arizona passed state laws
In the January 2008 issue of Scientific Americanto support solar energy starting in 2003. Pilot
Magazine, Ken Seibel, James Mason and Vassalsprograms were approved to accelerate the
Fthenakis published an article " A Solar Grand Plan".market development for distributed PV
They proposed that by 2050 solar power couldinstallations in schools, public buildings, and individual
end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slashresidential and small business establishments. The
greenhouse gas emissions. They propose that asupport for these programs has continued to
vast area of photovoltaic cell be erected in thestrengthen. It is viewed as a major job producing
Southwest. Their proposal would store excesseffort, a project to maintain reasonable electrical
daytime energy in underground caverns to becosts and the major benefit of non polluting
tapped during nighttime hours. A direct-currentenergy.
power transmission would have to be built toThe second major announcement is the desire of
deliver this power across the USA. TheyAbu Dhabi to spend $15 billion makes the oil-rich
estimated that $420 billion in government subsidiesemirate an epicenter of green technology. Called
from 2011 to 2050 would be require to fund thisthe Masdar Initiative, it's best known for plans to
project. They estimated that this proposal couldbuild Masdar City, a "zero-carbon, zero-waste"
supply 69 percent of the U.S. electricity and 35urban center. Actually, the far range objective of
percent of its total energy by 2050. On the firstthe Masdar Initiative is to establish the Silicon
reading this article sounded great but far reaching.Valley of renewable solar energy in Abu Dhabi.
Where could we get the leadership to accomplishThe intent is to cover the whole value chain -
this task?from research to labs to manufacturing to the
In the short period between the January articledeployment of technologies. To that end, Masdar
and late February two major announcementsis collaborating with European and U.S. universities,
leads us to embrace "A Solar Grand Plan" as aincluding MIT and Columbia, to develop a research
major component to reduce our fossil fuelinstitute.
payments to the Middle East . The first event isWe in the US should find condolence that the
the announcement from the Associated Press$500,000,000,000.00 dollars that we are sending
entitled "Can Arizona becomes the Persian Gulf ofto the Middle East are being spent widely. A
Solar Energy?" The Spanish company Abingdoncountry that is sitting on an oil rich desert is
Solar and Arizona Public Service Company arebuilding solar power plant to free themselves of
planning to take 3 square miles of desertthe escalating cost of fossil fuels and be
southwest of Phoenix and turn them into one of"zero-carbon, zero-waste" urban center. If the
the largest solar power plants in the world. "TheirUnited States continues to stay addicted to the oil
proposal would yield a 280 MW capacity electricalof the Middle East we will be paying with inflating
generating plant.This is accomplished on a 3 squarecosts as the oil fields deplete.
miles of desert. The energy plant would supply