| North Korea, which recently conducted an | | | | invade us, therefore we need the nukes.' I can't |
| underground nuclear test, and Iran, which is | | | | comment on Iran," Lilley says. "But, I will say, the |
| accused of harboring nuclear weapons ambitions | | | | North Koreans have used this relentlessly, |
| are the remaining governments in what President | | | | pounded it home, 'axis of evil, axis of evil, axis of |
| Bush once labeled the "axis of evil." What practical | | | | evil. You called us a dirty name. You have insulted |
| effect did that designation have on the | | | | the pride of the great North Korean people. It's |
| international landscape? | | | | on your back, America. If you had not have done |
| In January 2002, President Bush stepped before | | | | this, maybe we would not have blown off the |
| Congress to utter what some consider the most | | | | nukes.' Come on. They've been trying to build |
| memorable, and, some would argue, among the | | | | these nukes for about 30 years." |
| most controversial words of his presidency. | | | | James Dobbins, head of the RAND Corporation's |
| "North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and | | | | International Security and Defense Policy Center, |
| weapons of mass destruction, while starving its | | | | agrees that North Korea was emboldened by U.S. |
| citizens," Mr. Bush says. "Iran aggressively pursues | | | | rhetoric and action. But, he adds, that Iran was at |
| these weapons, and exports terror, while an | | | | first more cautious, then speeded up its efforts |
| unelected few repress the Iranian peoples' hope | | | | and toughened its negotiating stance. |
| for freedom. Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility | | | | "In the North Korean case, it clearly didn't slow |
| towards America and support terror. States like | | | | them down," Dobbins says. "It simply either |
| these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of | | | | reconfirmed them in their course of action, or led |
| evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world." | | | | them to accelerate their efforts. In the Iranian |
| The "axis of evil" phrase was interpreted in many | | | | case, I think that it probably initially made them |
| quarters as a call for "regime change" in Iraq, Iran | | | | more cautious when it appeared that we might |
| and North Korea. Some analysts say the | | | | succeed in establishing a democratic and |
| presidential rhetoric, coupled with the 2003 | | | | pro-Western Iraq. And, then, when it was clear |
| invasion of Iraq and ouster of Saddam Hussein, | | | | that we were not going to succeed, it |
| fueled, rather than deterred the nuclear ambitions | | | | emboldened them." |
| of Iran and North Korea. | | | | Iran continues to deny it wants nuclear arms, |
| Ken Katzman, a Middle East policy analyst at the | | | | saying it only seeks peaceful nuclear energy. But |
| non-partisan Congressional Research Service, says | | | | the United States and other U.N. Security Council |
| the reverberations from that phrase have been | | | | members seek to impose sanctions on Iran for |
| enormous. | | | | what they believe are Tehran's nuclear weapons |
| "What goes through my mind is the degree to | | | | ambitions. |
| which the so-called 'axis of evil' has come back to | | | | John Calabrese, an analyst at the Middle East |
| haunt the United States," Katzman says. "The | | | | Institute and professor at American University, |
| so-called 'axis of evil' is looming larger than it did | | | | says the current situation in Iraq has had almost |
| when that speech was given. And, maybe, part | | | | inherently conflicting effects in Iran and North |
| of it is because some of these states, particularly | | | | Korea and on their nuclear programs. |
| Iran and North Korea, felt that, if they're going to | | | | "It's almost contradictory. On the one hand, the |
| be designated part of an 'axis of evil,' that may | | | | situation in Iraq has contributed to the acceleration |
| reflect an aggressive U.S. intention, and, maybe, | | | | of those programs," Calabrese says. "On the |
| we (they) need to speed up our programs." | | | | other hand, what it's done is contributed to the |
| North Korea's nuclear program was already well | | | | mistrust, or pre-existing mistrust, between the |
| advanced, and Pyongyang had bragged about | | | | United States and those two regimes. I think it's |
| having a nuclear weapons capability. James Lilley, | | | | going to be very difficult for the Bush |
| former U.S. ambassador to China and South | | | | administration to persuade either government that |
| Korea, says the "axis of evil" designation and the | | | | it's truly abandoned the regime change option, |
| invasion of Iraq changed nothing, and just gave | | | | even at the same time when the United States |
| North Korea a pretext. | | | | seems to have lost the military capacity, at least, |
| "It gave the North Koreans a cause to say that | | | | to produce those regime changes. |
| the Americans invaded Iraq, 'therefore, they will | | | | |