Analysts: Agreement at Korean Nuclear Talks Will Not Be Easy

In Beijing, the six-party talks on North Korea'sweek, chief U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill said the
nuclear-weapons program have resumed.Bush administration had no plans to attack North
The United States has been saying since OctoberKorea.
2002 that Pyongyang has a secretExperts also say Pyongyang is looking for
nuclear-weapons program. Since then, Northeconomic incentives in exchange for nuclear
Korea has pulled out of the Nucleardisarmament. Mr. Kimball says the United States
Non-Proliferation Treaty, expelled U.N. monitors,wants something else from North Korea.
and re-opened a nuclear facility it had promised to"For the North Koreans to announce that they
dismantle in 1994.are going to dismantle their nuclear-weapons
Jim Walsh is a nuclear expert from Harvardcapacity, to freeze their current activities in a
University says very little is known about Northverifiable fashion, both in terms of their plutonium
Korea's program to build nuclear weapons.activities and their possible uranium-enrichment
"It is not a very transparent place. Internationalactivities and then allow for the dismantlement of
Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have not beentheir nuclear facilities that can be used to produce
there for some time. But what is known from thenuclear bomb material or nuclear weapons," he
past, is that they had a reactor that couldsaid.
produce plutonium, that could reprocess plutoniumMr. Kimball says a key sticking point in the
and with that plutonium, construct nuclearnegotiations is what is called "sequencing", what
weapons," he said. "On February 10 of this year,comes first, North Korea's disarmament or
the North Korean government issued aneconomic incentives from neighboring states?
announcement saying that they had nuclear"The North Koreans want all the benefits up front
weapons: that was their first publicand they would like to dismantle later. And what
pronouncement of that kind, although they hadthe United States has been has been insisting on,
been telling us and others privately four monthsup to this point, basically, is for the North Koreans
prior to that that they did in fact have a quoteto announce that they are going to dismantle and
'nuclear deterrent' unquote. But the estimates areto begin doing so and then to consider providing
uncertain, ranging anywhere from zero nuclearsome of the benefits the North Koreans are
weapons to maybe six to eight nuclear weapons,looking for," he explained. "So I think to put it
but frankly, not a lot is known. They have notcrudely, bluntly, simply - one of the key, if not the
tested a nuclear weapon, so there is not a lot ofkey, issue for the two sides to resolve is the
data out there."sequencing of these steps."
For the past several years, the United States hasHarvard University's Jim Walsh, who has recently
been trying to persuade North Korea to eliminatemet with North Korean nuclear officials in
its nuclear-weapons capabilities. That effort hasPyongyang, says there is another key factor that
been conducted through the negotiating forumwill determine the success or failure of these
known as the six-party talks that bring togethertalks.
the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South"The real issue here, the more general issue is an
Korea, and North Korea.issue of seriousness. And the North Koreans
Since August 2003, diplomats from the sixwonder whether the United States is really
countries met three times with very littleserious or whether it is talking for the sake of
progress achieved. Now, after a 13-month hiatus,talking, for diplomatic advantage or to buy time,"
the parties are meeting again in an effort to trysaid Mr. Walsh. "For their part, American officials
to move the process forward.wonder whether the North Koreans are serious,
Experts say it will not be easy to reconcile twowhether they are just talking for the sake of
conflicting negotiating positions.talking in order to get aid or other assistance. And
"What is clear from the historical record, is thatso while I do not expect at this week's talks for
what North Korea seems to be looking for is athere to be a major breakthrough - I do not
resolution to the long-standing 'state of war' thatexpect the difficult issues to be resolved. I do
technically and legally still exists between Northhope, though, that each side is able to
Korea and the United States," said Daryl Kimball,communicate to the other, in a credible way, that
who heads the Arms Control Association, anthey are serious and want real negotiations."
independent research organization. "This is whyAnalysts say if these talks fail, the United States
they have from time to time said that they seekmay call for economic and political sanctions
some form of peace treaty with the Unitedagainst North Korea, including referring the matter
States, to formally end the Korean War. Theyto the United Nations Security Council. Experts
also, related to that, have stated that they aresay that would result in an unfortunate escalation
looking for guarantees that the United States willof the crisis with unforeseen consequences for
not attack the regime or the country."everyone.
During the opening round of talks earlier this