| Deliberations over the UN sanctions against North | | | | be unable to operate against Hezbollah since, |
| Korea or Iran for their nuclear programs bring to | | | | technically, every Israeli incursion in Lebanon is an |
| memory the League of Nations talk before the | | | | aggression. Lebanon would be able to conduct an |
| WWII. Was German refusal to pay reparations a | | | | undeclared war against Israel, Egypt would |
| casus belli? Re-militarization of Rhineland? | | | | mobilize and move its troops into Sinai, but Israel - |
| Extensive military production? No single such issue | | | | concerned with Iranian nuclear protection - could |
| is a casus belli. Politicians bogged down in details | | | | do nothing. |
| don't see the grand picture of the imminent war. | | | | Nuclear containment is a game of nerves. With |
| Then and now. | | | | Iranian nuclear warheads in Lebanon and Palestine, |
| The West demonstrated its impotence in the | | | | what would Israel do? Escalating, like Kennedy did |
| face of nuclear proliferation. China got nuclear | | | | in the Cuban missile crisis, is unlikely. Israel already |
| weapons with impunity. Pakistan received a minor | | | | lost her credibility when we did not stop the |
| slap of sanctions. North Korean rulers sagged | | | | Iranian deployment of Zelzal-2 missiles in Beka'a. |
| under the weight of sanctions: the Japanese | | | | Iran will move its nuclear weapons in Lebanon |
| refused to sell them melons. Sanctions against | | | | under a mutual defense treaty, a clearly |
| Iran would hardly include oil, and even so the | | | | protective measure. Every reasonable person |
| mullahs can do without the oil for some time; yet | | | | would agree that Iranian nuclear weapons defend |
| rising price of oil will be blamed on the sanctions. | | | | Lebanon, not are intended for aggression. Israeli |
| Ahmadinejad needs a rhetorical, not battlefield | | | | government won't act, as it didn't act against |
| enemy. Iran will use the bomb to gain dominance | | | | Egyptian, Libyan, Algerian, Moroccan, Pakistani, and |
| in the Muslim world. That spells a development of | | | | Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran would win the war of |
| the Shiite axis, huge discontent in the Arab world, | | | | nerves. Mutually assured destruction works |
| and the arms race. Arab states will rush to | | | | against tiny Israel. |
| develop nuclear weapons to be on par with Iran. | | | | With sufficiently aggressive leadership, Iran could |
| The Arabs know that Iran won't attack Israel | | | | provide nuclear umbrella to any state willing to |
| with nuclear weapons, but could well attack them. | | | | attack Israel. Iran could threaten nuclear retaliation |
| Central Asian countries will also be concerned | | | | against Israel if we attack enemy population |
| because Iran includes them in its sphere of | | | | centers or even anywhere deep in the enemy |
| dominance. They have oil money and Russian | | | | territory. Soviet Union successfully used that |
| support against Iran, and will join the arms - | | | | approach in 1973. It provided Egypt with SAM-5 |
| probably, nuclear arms - race. | | | | anti-air missiles to limit Israeli operations to the |
| Iran will provide nuclear shield to Israeli enemies | | | | front zone, and moved the missiles with nuclear |
| such as Syria or Hezbollah. When Muslim | | | | warheads to prevent Israeli nuclear retaliation. Iran |
| Brotherhood officially comes to power in Egypt | | | | could use the nuclear umbrella to inhibit Israeli |
| and switches the policy to confrontation with | | | | preemption, penetrating strikes, and generally any |
| Israel, Iranian nuclear protection will allow them to | | | | combat on the enemy territory. Bereft of Sinai, |
| build up the Egyptian army in safety. Arab nuclear | | | | Israel lacks the territory of her own to conduct |
| umbrella invalidates Israel's only viable military | | | | mobile defense. Iranian nuclear capability opens the |
| strategy, preemption. If Iran signs a mutual | | | | way for the Muslim world to encroach on Israel |
| defense treaty with, say, Lebanon, Israel would | | | | by conventional means. |