| After more than a year of stalling, North Korea | | | | Pyongyang wants formal pledges from |
| has agreed to resume negotiations about its | | | | Washington that it would not attack the North in |
| nuclear weapons programs next week in Beijing. | | | | addition to massive aid. Pyongyang has cited a |
| But experts and officials note this is the easy | | | | number of reasons and rationales for refusing to |
| step. | | | | negotiate, including a charge that the United |
| After the good news about the resumption of | | | | States retains a "hostile attitude." |
| disarmament talks come the big questions. How | | | | Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations |
| much progress will there be? How long might it | | | | at China's People's University in Beijing, says |
| take to reach agreement? Ultimately, will North | | | | resolution of this conflict depends on compromise |
| Korea ever abandon nuclear weapons completely? | | | | by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and President |
| The United States, Japan, South Korea, China and | | | | Bush. "Even if the six-party talks get started this |
| Russia have been urging North Korea since 2003 | | | | month, I personally feel that prospects for the |
| to give up its nuclear weapons programs, which | | | | final settlement are quite bleak," he said. "Will Kim |
| were developed in violation of international | | | | Jong Il be willing to give up his nuclear arms |
| agreements. | | | | programs? Will the United States change its |
| Then last year, after three rounds of inconclusive | | | | fundamental position?" |
| six-nation talks in Beijing, North Korea abandoned | | | | Historically, experts note North Korea has dragged |
| the process, announced it already possessed | | | | out negotiations as long as possible, adapting |
| nuclear weapons, and - at one point - implied it | | | | hostile and conciliatory tones in turn, to see which |
| might be preparing to test them. | | | | tactic works and in order to extract as many |
| Intense diplomatic consultation and some | | | | concessions as possible. Park Young-ho, a senior |
| economic inducements from South Korea appear | | | | research fellow at the Korea Institute of National |
| to have brought North Korea back to the table. | | | | Unification, says this pattern is at play now. "North |
| But what will be the benefits of more | | | | Korea has calculated what they can get from the |
| negotiations? Many experts say there are few | | | | United States. But their tactics have not |
| options beyond talks. But some - like Professor | | | | succeeded in inducing concessions from the United |
| Bruce Cumings, a North Korea scholar at the | | | | States," he said. "That's why they returned to the |
| University of Chicago - warn that prolonging talks | | | | talks." |
| only seems to benefit North Korea. | | | | Analysts say the promise of energy that the |
| "If the six-party talks don't work then North | | | | North desperately needs could make a difference. |
| Korea would have gained some time to make | | | | Electricity, along with tons of fertilizer and food |
| more nuclear weapons," said Professor Cumings. | | | | aid, are vital to the survival of the impoverished |
| "We'll still be in a very dangerous situation, and the | | | | communist nation. |
| re-division of this region along lines like back in the | | | | In June last year, the United States offered to |
| Cold War would continue." | | | | provide an energy package to the North in |
| The current nuclear crisis erupted in October | | | | exchange for disarmament. The details of the |
| 2002, when the United States said North Korea | | | | offer have not been made public, but U.S. |
| had admitted to running a secret, uranium-based | | | | Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says the |
| nuclear program in violation of a 1994 agreement. | | | | offer is still on the table. |
| Under that deal, a Japanese, South Korean and | | | | On top of that, South Korea last week unilaterally |
| U.S. consortium was to supply fuel oil and build | | | | offered to send huge amounts of electricity |
| light-water safe reactors in the North. In | | | | across the border into the North in exchange for |
| exchange, Pyongyang agreed to close its | | | | disarmament. South Korean officials say the |
| Soviet-built nuclear plants, capable of producing | | | | proffered electricity would replace the power |
| plutonium to convert into nuclear weapons fuel. | | | | plants North Korea would have received under the |
| But construction of the light-water reactors was | | | | failed 1994 agreement, giving it access to |
| slow. Pyongyang argued the United States was | | | | sufficient energy within a few short years. |
| failing to meet its obligations, not only on energy | | | | That still may not be enough to convince Kim |
| but also on a pledge to move toward normalizing | | | | Jong Il. Chun Hong Chan, a politics professor at |
| U.S.-North Korean diplomatic relations. Washington | | | | Busan University, says Pyongyang is unlikely to let |
| maintains that the North Koreans have been | | | | Seoul control its electricity supply. He also says |
| reneging on the 1994 agreement from the start, | | | | the North is unlikely to give up the one thing - |
| and never intended to give up their nuclear | | | | nuclear weapons - that gives it any leverage over |
| weapons development. | | | | its enemies. "If North Korea renounces its nuclear |
| Since the dispute became public, the North has | | | | programs for good, it means it cannot use the |
| expelled United Nations nuclear inspectors, pulled | | | | card anymore, and I don't think a country like |
| out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and | | | | North Korea will give up that card for good," he |
| threatened to build more weapons. Name-calling | | | | said. |
| and insults between the two sides have intensified. | | | | Despite the lack of certainty, experts say the |
| Now, the Bush administration wants North Korea | | | | offers on the table form a good basis for serious |
| to "completely, verifiably and irreversibly" | | | | negotiations. If an agreement is reached, |
| dismantle its nuclear programs - both uranium and | | | | however, another serious question arises: can all |
| plutonium-based - before giving economic and | | | | sides be trusted to deliver on what they promise? |
| security incentives. | | | | |